I promised to get back to you on politics:
As you know, there is roughly a division of the electorate into thirds, which each party taking a share, and the last third Independents. However, Independents tend to vote Republican. Thus, the advantage, for the foreseeable future, is Republican. There is no recruitment required, just finding a balance to attract enough moderates, while holding the conservative base.
As for the last election, and leaving aside points of dispute, you are not getting the significance. The successor to an apparently successful president, himself an integral part of the Administration, could not decisively beat a candidate who had the "lightweight" label stuck on him early. Next time, Bush will not be definable by his enemies, and there will not be as credible a Democratic candidate. Every time the Democrats use "the sky is falling" against someone, and it doesn't, the Republicans gain from it. Trying to demonize Reagan backfired, as did trying to demonize Gingrich. No one is afraid of conservatives any more, and now calling someone "dumb" just sounds like a standard Democratic canard.
Republicans have more governorships and state legislatures than Democrats. Even in a "Democratic" state like Maryland, almost all counties went to Ellen Saurbrey, a very conservative Republican, both times. Only because of Baltimore and the three most populous counties did she lose, in the first instance amidst allegations of vote tampering, the race was so close. My county, Anne Arundel, has voted for the Republican presidential candidate every time, in the last couple of decades, by a majority vote. It is integrated and suburban, not rural.
Thus, there is generally a division between the core of metropolitan areas and the outlying areas of most states. Republicans take most counties, as Watson has pointed out, nationwide. If it were not for concentrated population areas, there would be no contest.
What this means is that almost any state is up for grabs, although, of course, some are likelier to cut one way or the other, depending upon the dominance of the cities. To me, the analogy is with Rudy Guiliani. In his first election, he lost everywhere but Staten Island. Fortunately, the win was so lopsided the he carried the city, since it had been close in other boroughs. In the second election, after he had a track record, he won throughout the city. After this crisis, a lot of people are practically ready to make him mayor for life.
Bush is gaining so much credibility, and is personifying American resolve to such a degree, that he is not likely to be beatable. But it is a long time, in politics, so we shall see........ |
