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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1627)	10/25/2001 8:15:06 PM
From: marginnayan	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

Something to consider for your turnips: Nov 6 is FED meeting. 1/4 cut a given. Nov 6 is Cisco's earnings. Cisco management is indirectly telling the world that the Q is in the bag and next Q should hopefully be okay. Chris of MSDW changing his tune on Cisco for the first time after being bearish on networking stocks (except JNPR). Other analysts of MSDW for telco equipment stocks are still bearish. Cisco started this NAS rally with positive comments from Mr. Chambers. It is possible that Cisco's earnings may decide the next course of action for NASDAQ. ---------- Cisco Systems (CSCO-$17-O-V) Raising Target - Margin Expansion Story in 2002 C. Stix dated 10/25/2001. F1Q02 preview - We believe CSCO will report revenue of between $4.17-4.30B and EPS between $0.02-0.03. We are carrying EPS of $0.02 and revenue of $4.17B (down 36% Y/Y, 3% Q/Q). Guidance will be the key. Growth remains the question mark; Margin expansion is the reason to own - CSCO's long-term growth rate continues to be uncertain. We believe CSCO can significantly increase gross and operating margins in 2002, due to low cost of inventory and further cost reductions. Valuing off of normalized earnings - We believe that normalized earnings for CSCO are in the $0.47- $0.60 per share range. We maintain our Outperform-V rating and raise our 12-month price target to $20. Based on normalized earnings of $0.55 and a 1.5x market PE multiple (21.6x on the C2002 S&P), we can justify a price of $19-20. Just few weeks ago: --------------- Cisco Systems (CSCO-$14-O-V) F1Q02 On Track Christopher Stix Dated 10/8/2001 In a conference presentation yesterday, CSCO CEO John Chambers indicated the he was comfortable with Street consensus estimates for F1Q02(ends Oct) of $0.02. We slightly raise our numbers. We raise F1Q02E EPS to $0.02 on revenue of $4.17B (down 36% Y/Y, 3% Q/Q). We keep C2002E and C2003E EPS at $0.22 and $0.42, respectively. How can this be? Our previous checks on CSCO showed some weakness in the business. CSCO does have some flexibility in reporting numbers due to large backlog ($2B). We maintain our Outperform-V rating and 12-month price target of $16, which is based on a long-term residual income model.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1627)	10/25/2001 8:17:41 PM
From: Kayaker	Respond to of 99280

Hard to believe the market can keep going up given all the negatives here: Reports Paint Dismal Picture of Economy Thursday October 25 5:30 PM ET By Barbara Hagenbaugh WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The number of Americans signing up for jobless benefits rose last week while orders for costly U.S. durable goods and existing home sales plunged in September, according to a series of reports released on Thursday that painted a grim picture of the U.S. economy. Adding to the tide of negative data that weighed on stock markets and boosted bonds, a private research group said its index of help wanted advertising also dropped.... dailynews.yahoo.com

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1627)	10/25/2001 8:29:02 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev: Re: " [W]e are really only 22 Naz points up from the high of Last Wednesday, why do you think that the next 20 points will take less than six trading days?" Excellent point.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1627)	10/25/2001 8:42:28 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

the bear from there till about February next year, with possibly lower bottom than this September I have several properties and visit Home Depot more than once a week for items. This afternoon in a line with 6 other Jerserians waiting in one of the two open cashier lines, who remember Channels, Rickels, Tops Appliances, Mr. Good Buys and Builders General and others NE retail stores run out of business by HD in late 80's and early 90's, we collectively and simultaneously had the feeling of deja vu. I am talking about stores that are having a novel to HD but almost identical marketing schemes of these aforementioned stores nearly a decade ago in their fight against HD. I am talking about having paper towels, housewares, pushing appliances big and small and associated service contracts while the aisles remain empty of customers. I am 100% not associating HD with these other firms ultimate outcome but in their simple minded ideas to boost sales. These ideas all failed badly for these other retailers so I decided to ask the manager about why all these new changes at HD. The manager stated to me "HD asked their suppliers for one idea each of what they would do to boost sales." It is plain to me that there are no geniuses in retail either at HD or at their suppliers. Previously I had a long conservation with a VP of a NJ based supplier to HD who explained how they could sell tens of millions of dollars of product and not have much to show for it after they added up all expenses of suppling HD. He seemed very disgruntled even angry if I read him right. So all is not right in retail. Spring is a good time of year for all sectors of economy construction, retail, banking, manufacturing and technology infrastructure to tank simultaneously to give rise to your lower low. I am not a Dow 7000'er, a USmarket like Japan's market'er, or multi year bear market'er. All I know is there is no fundamental reason for the market to rise like it is and that time and time again stock speculation gets corrected quickly and soundly. john

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1627)	10/26/2001 6:16:38 AM
From: Rich1	Respond to of 99280

Cycle guy came within .25 cents of the low and he has 11/5 as the top FWIW..

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (1627)	11/14/2001 6:40:09 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Zeev: I am curious as to what is your current thinking is on this turnip musing: "If we close above 1793, and the momentum is still there, and few other "ifs", the next target is 1940 in my chart. If that happens, I will have difficulties with a bottom in December, and more like a continuation of the bear from there till about February next year, with possibly lower bottom than this September. Too many things are uncertain right now, so, when we cross that boundary (naely a close above 1793), I'll look back at the turnips and decide what next." Message 16560200