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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (60402)	10/26/2001 11:23:27 AM
From: AK2004	Respond to of 275872

Joe no doubt about it but you have to admit that intel's messages are less than clear Regards -Albert

To: Joe NYC who wrote (60402)	10/26/2001 4:29:34 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

re: Osha:Our model shows P4 shipments at 12.5 million units during the third quarter, or 46% of our total estimated unit volume of 27 million units. What a dodo. Even Intel said that P4 shipments did not exceed P3 shipments until early Q4. Celeron market share had to have been at least 5% higher than Pentium III market share, based on the big plurality of Celeron SKU's vs. PIII SKU's. Or in terms of units, C>P+1.35. The P4 market share must have been at least 10% below the PIII market share, because it never exceeded it for any of the 13 weeks of the quarter. So, Q, the number of P4's shipped must be less than P-1.35. Q>P did not occur until early Q4. So C>P+1.35 Q<P-2.7 C+P+Q=27 The largest Q (P4 shipments) could be with the above constraints is 6.75m units C=10.8m units P=9.45m units Q=6.75m units Even if you believe PIII shipments were equal to Celeron shipments (I don't), you get only 7.2m P4's. BTW, if the 27m unit number is accurate, and VIA had ~0.5m units, AMD had 22% market share, as they confirmed in their earnings statement. (7.7/35.2) Petz