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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (34922)	10/26/2001 3:30:47 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Respond to of 68391

[madtrader] Fri Oct 26, 12:19pm PDT $VIX.X I think a few days ago that wrote that some traders, me included tend to get comfortable with a certain trading range for the market. I was using VIX as a guide for a "normal" range of the market. That being the case, VIX has been riding above 30s for almost a month. And I thought the March/April level of low to mid 30s would provide support. Well, that broke. So, I would have to assume VIX will fall into the "real" normal range of 20s and 30s. With the momentum of this tape, I would not get too concerned about them over-doing it until VIX get down to the low 20s. none. [madtrader] Fri Oct 26, 12:12pm PDT $DJI $NDX.X Watch the market take off towards the close. long QQQ Nov 36 calls. Register for our newsletter [madtrader] Fri Oct 26, 12:10pm PDT QQQ OEX Until some major news event that can do substantial damage to the tape, I will continue to believe the pull backs to be shallow. There is just too much cash on the sidelines pressing to get in. At least until the end of next week. Next week is the end of fiscal year for a lot of mutual funds, window dressing is inevitable. So don't be surprised to see the latest highfliers continue to be supported. There is also a little know indictor that has called this market correctly. The OEX mirror options. With OEX near 570 ealier, the mirror options, Nov 500 puts and 640 calls have a premium ratio of 18 to 1. The calls were priced at $0.10 while the equally out of money puts are priced at $1.80. Which suggest a ton of fear. At the most recent market bottom, this ratio was near 30. In a normal market situation, the corresponding ratio should be 3 or 4 to 1. none rumordude.com

To: j g cordes who wrote (34922)	10/26/2001 3:52:33 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68391

Hi Jim, The riduculous valuation screen is from marketplayer.com marketplayer.com I am lighten up on some positions into this rally in anticipation of a re-tracement of the current move. I have to admit though that even though the overall economic and business conditions are bad, there are some signs of strength and therefore indication of a bottom forming. On Tim's assertion that we should be looking at sectors for the next rally. I am not as convinced that sectors will rally as opposed to individual stocks. We are going through a period where the strong will get stronger and the rest will turn to dust. With that in mind, GNSS, TELM and KOPN are companies with products that are just starting to ramp. AVNX did not sell off since it was near cash and was able to emphasis it strong pipeline of products despite the lousy current conditions and potential 5 to 9 months of backklog of inventory at its customers. The report that Clint posted today on CHRT earnings are also positive data points though they are still few and far. GigE looks like it is gaining momentum internationally. MRVL is a good bet there and has held up better than some. RSTN is acutally in an amzing number of GigE wins. It is a sleeper stock that got re-discovered this week after its post Sept 11 update. It used to be part of the old CS company so it has a built in blue chip customer list. Route 66 is on hold. I hope to try again next spring. My classic car is about to go into storage for the winter. It looks like I need some transmission work done too. I went on a trip toward to Rocky Mountains in British Columbia instead of the Route 66 trip and I had a lot of overheating problems. That is not a good sign for the mountains of Northern California or the altitude of New Mexico.