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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjstingray who wrote (107520)	10/26/2001 12:29:40 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

The interest rate on the long bond has been going down for 20 years, allowing PEs to expand. If this trend continues, it could provide further support for higher PEs. A company that can grow 30% a year for an extended time, in an extended period of very low interest rates, could have a very high PE.....How high, I don't know, but probably a lot higher than 25. If interest rates start to rise, however, a trend of PE contraction could dampen the effects of rising earnings. Deflationary trends are in force at the moment, tho, so it is too soon to plan an investment strategy on rising interest rates. Robin

To: jjstingray who wrote (107520)	10/26/2001 1:00:55 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

QCOM is not trading at 70 times. Based on next year's consensus of $1.30, it is trading at 42 PE. Given the fact that QCOM has negative EPS this year from writeoffs, they will be able to show an easy EPS comp for 2002. The bubble has already been burst for the NASDAQ. The risk is greater for the shorts from this point forward. New products like CDMA2000, Windows XP, Sun One, etc... are beginning to catch people's attention. We have to start upgrading our pc's, laptops, cell phones because all the current technology is total crap!! 2002 represents a new range of opportunites for wireless - let's look at them. - Unicom is converting their GSM customers to CDMA networks. 10 million new CDMA subs in China. - India is planning fixed WAN (WLL) wireless services in India. - Ford and Qualcomm will introduce telematic services. 2 million Ford cars will be equipped with wireless equipment to support CDMA2000 & Globalstar services. Wingcast and Globalstar will finally have a chance to generate revenues. - GM will launch more telematic equipped vehicles. - CDMA2000 will be introduced in Japan and the US. 3G is finally here!! - CDMA 1xEV will be introduced in Korea. SKT & KTF will continue to convert customers to "1X" service. - Wireless modems, wireless notebooks, and other pc based products will be avialable. No one was willing to support pc based products at 14 kbps. Now that 1X is double the speed of dial up modems, customers can finally cancel their dial up services. I don't think there is any question that QCOM can generate a meaningful growth rate now that 3G is here. Analyst's only concern with CDMA at this point is that much of the revenue is taking form through replacement sales. Ironically, that is the very key to it's success!! People are finally making the upgrades from CDMAONE to CDMA2000 to CDMA 1xEV to CDMA 3xEV to WCDMA. There are 4 upgrade cycles for the CDMA roadmap over the next 4 years. Coupled by the fact that the next upgrade from GSM/GPRS will include some variation of CDMA (CDMA2000 or WCDMA) doesn't hurt much either. I am not going to try to put numbers in front of Qualcomm with respect to ASIC shipments. I don't hink it is a problem, however, that 99% of the current CDMA subscribers will have to change equipment. I think it's wonderful that Qualcomm's market share is beginning to climb from the teen's to the mid twenties next year. It is even better that they will have 90 % market share of the existing market next year.