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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (107524)	10/26/2001 2:14:00 PM
From: Jordan Levitt	Respond to of 152472

<<So whats the good scenario where stocks can go up from these lofty valuation's? >> At least as far as qcom is concerned, here is my "good" scenario... The company, based largely on the evolution to 3G (as opposed to increased penetration), experiences rapid earnings growth over the next 3 to 4 years ( I can make a strong case for 30 - 40%). This in an environment that I feel will be devoid of similar stories. The market, being a manic/depressive, once again overreacts and extrapolates that these are the long term growth rates and overprices qcom. At which time I declare to some sucker, "sold to you !" I feel that the market constantly cycles through over and undervaluation. This one could be fun.

To: marginmike who wrote (107524)	10/26/2001 2:38:19 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Respond to of 152472

"If deflation acelerates ASP's will declins substantially, and qcom's growth will be slowed as well. As for lower rates lower pe's, if this is true, what happened in 1930's and in japan? Its irrelevent anyway because I believe US rates will back up due to fiscal irresponsibility and huge debt of consumer, corporate and US Government. If we have a modest recovery then rates back up signifigently, and pe's contract acourding to you. If rates go down that means business FA deteriorates, right? and earnings decline against expanding Pe's. So whats the good scenario where stocks can go up from these lofty valuation's?" I think in the 19th century they had periods of mild deflation, 1-2%, and low interest rates, about 1%, and moderate growth in GNP. This type of environment might be OK for stocks, allowing a high PE for companies that can manage strong growth. A mild deflation does not necessarily mean that asp for qcom would decline much differently. Mild deflation can be caused by higher productivity, and companies such as qcom that can drive higher productivity should be able to have strong demand for their products. A return to moderate growth may not imply higher interest rates if we have increasing productivity and mild deflation. The debt issues are real, the fiscal and monetary stimulus are real....maybe we go into a downward spiral, but we might also go into an upward spiral. The massive stimulus should create some type of recovery next year...is it an inflationary period with rising interest rates or a deflationary period with continued low/declining interest rates? I don't know. The market indicators should give a sign of a turn for the worse in the market (eg hays smart money index, which has been rising more since 9/11), or a continued turn for the better. At the moment, the indicators tell us to be invested. Robin