Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H. Bradley Toland, Jr. who wrote (107536)	10/26/2001 4:49:07 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

<ps still a tall order to grow at 40%/yr. > CDMA is just hitting its stride. Check QUALCOMM's growth rate over the past 15 years. It has been consistent and the goodies stacked in the pipeline already and the demand for cellphones and data means 40% profit growth for a few years is reasonable. Royalties are mostly profit, and so are ASICs. OmniTRACS isn't bad either. So, once the costs are covered, it's all icing from there. Doubling the sales doesn't increase costs at all. There are no more QUALCOMM staff needed if the CDMA licensees double their sales. It's not like building a second car factory in another country which means almost doubling staff and fixed costs. When there are 1 billion people using CDMA, [with many of them with a few devices], replacing their devices every one, two, or three years for the slow ones, that's 300 million gadgets a year just for the replacement market. With 300 million new CDMA users per year, that's about 600 million CDMA devices a year. To get from the current 50 million per year to 600 million per year by 2009, we need a 40% growth rate. Earlier this year, CDMA subscribers reached 100 million. That's just subscriber growth. Because earnings growth is much faster, due to the icing effect, 40% growth rate in earnings is easy peasy. Mq

To: H. Bradley Toland, Jr. who wrote (107536)	10/27/2001 10:20:25 AM
From: Keith Feral	Respond to of 152472

Their estimate for 2002 is $1.30. 40% growth would imply $1.80 eps in 2003 EPS, and $2.50 eps for 2004. You would get to $3.50 eps in 2005. I have not seen anyone from QCOM project that kind of growth. Since the bubble busrt in March 2000, it's hip to be square!! There are only a small handful of companies that will show incremental revenue and EPS growth for next year - MSFT and QCOM. The CSCO's of the world may show positive comparisons due to smaller losses. They don't have any more writeoffs to make.