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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (107540)	10/27/2001 1:26:08 AM
From: cfoe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

[Also posted on Moderated thread (if it looks familiar <g>)] RE: Article on QCOM in Forbes 10/29/01 issue. I know this article has been mentioned on the QCOM thread(s) before. I read it this past week and have a few questions. (Sorry but I cannot provide a link so i will quote the relevant parts. Article has an insert titled "By the Numbers" and in it says - 2004 Year when most cellular carriers are expected to start converting to speedy 3G technology. $120 billion in wireless infrastructure spending expected by 2004. $38 billion in handset-chip sales expected by 2005, compared to an estimated $14.9 billion this year. Later in article it says the "Cahners In-Stat Group forecasts for worldwide sales of wireless handset chips in the year 2005: $2.5 billion for WCDMA, $20 billion for GPRS and $10 billion for CDMA2000." I was trying to see if these figures could be used in forecasting QCOM numbers in 2004 and 2005, but need help with the the following questions: Chart says $38 billion in handset-chip sales by 2005 - since it is in the box relating to 3G, could this be a cumulative number for 3G handset-chip sales from now through 2005? If not, then how does this relate to the total of $32.5 (2.5+20+10) billion later in the article? In the figure for $120 billion in 3G wireless infrastructure, are they including GPRS even though it is not 3G? I assume yes, since GPRA handset chip sales are used later in the article. Also, isn't GPRS more a software upgrade? If so, how much of the infrastructure would be GPRS vs. one of the flavors of CDMA? Am I correct that when they talk about handset chip sales, they are talking about every kind of chip that goes into the handset? If so, then is it correct to assume that the more QCOM can put more functionality on its ASICs, the larger its percentage share of the entire chip set market? Can anyone venture a guess as to what that percentage might be in 2005? I may have more questions, but this enough to get started on. {Note - I know the figures quoted in the article may have unknowable relation to what will actually happen - but at least it is a place to start.