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To: E.J. Neitz Jr who wrote (34031)	10/27/2001 9:38:41 PM
From: Kelvin Taylor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

Ed, don't take this the wrong way, but what do you know about Steven Milunovich? I mean his record? I'm all for posting commentary to see other points of view. However, let's take what any analyst says now with a degree of skepitcism based on the past record. I decided to do a little digging. He is negative on the tech sector now. What a change from a year ago: Quotes from Sept.12, 2000 "We're probably in year three of a multi-year buying period for Internet infrastructure, which could easily go on for another 10 years." Milunovich likes SUNW, EMC and NTAP in storage. (Merrill Lynch has done investment banking for Network Appliance.) SUNW closed on 9/12/00 @ 114.35 NTAP closed on 9/12/00 @ 109.19 Favorite stock for next 12 months: EMC "Storage demand is growing in units at 100+% per year and in revenue, maybe 25% to 30%, and while there's more competition, EMC is the king of the hill." EMC closed on 9/12/00 @ $94 For comments on IBM and other stocks he was not keen on: thestreet.com Here are excerpts from a BusinessWeek Online interview on Nov. 27, 2000 Personal Finance Editor Susan Scherreik recently spoke to Milunovich, 40, about technology investing. Q: Are you bullish? A: Over the long term, yes. Technology will continue to be one of the fastest growing sectors of the economy. Q: What about the short term? A: We might see a bounce between now and January because tech stocks have staged a yearend rally in eight of the past 10 years. But I doubt we will make new highs. Price-earnings ratios are still generally high by historic standards. Tech stocks have to fall another 10% to 15% before being fairly valued. Q: Which stocks will best capitalize on this? A: The infrastructure players are well positioned. SUNW could dominate the server category. In storage devices, we like EMC, NTAP, VRTS. In communications equipment CSCO, NT, and JDSU are good choices. Software will be important, ARBA, ORCL and niche players like PVTL and MERQ. Q: How about the wireless Internet? A: The wireless buildout has barely begun. We think the device companies, such as RIMM, PALM and HAND will thrive, as well as new software names, such as PHCM and services companies like AETH. Q: What sectors do you avoid? A: We're underweighting Internet stocks. We've seen a bubble type of industry; first there was hypergrowth, and then the bubble burst. Q: Are there cheap tech stocks that investors should buy now? A: There are cheap stocks, but whether they are screaming buys isn't clear. For instance, CPQ, DELL, MSFT, and INTC have fallen to attractive levels, and they will probably bounce back a bit. But they were the leaders of the PC era of computing, and the fundamentals don't support investing in them over the next few years. You're better off buying high-quality companies, like EMC and Network Appliance, because they are in sync with the new trends. EMC closed on 11/27/00 @ 84.25(-10% from 9/12) NTAP closed on 11/27/00 @ 54.43(-50% from 9/12) Q: What's the best way to value tech stocks? A: Revenues are a better predictor than earnings of tech-stock prices in the short term. A good example is Nortel. Its third-quarter earnings beat estimates, but revenues were disappointing, and its share price has since fallen 29%. That said, we still think Nortel is a good stock to own because it's a leader in the high-growth fiber-optics area. NT closed 11/27 @ 39.25 businessweek.com EMC closed Friday @ 13.41, NTAP @ 13.16, and NT @ 6.25 didn't bother to post the prices for the other stocks...we all know what have have done over the past year. judge for yourself if the bearish now is the same extreme as the bullish was a year ago. Milunovich was also bullish on HWP in July 2000. just in case any one was wondering....