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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marc ultra who wrote (1547)	10/28/2001 9:13:30 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 10065

Thanks marc - so much for the microwave over idea. We don't deserve to have to think about such things. P

To: marc ultra who wrote (1547)	10/29/2001 12:59:06 AM
From: marc ultra	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10065

theoretical outlook thrown out for consideration. Let's say with all the monetary and fiscal stimulus going around we assume the economy bottoms around sometime in 2002. Now the market historically bottoms roughly six months before the economy. So we could roughly guess the start of a cyclical bull as somewhere between now(conceivably started already) or else some time in 2002. Looking at productivity it is doubtful we will be back to extreme levels of productivity growth since you will have some head winds like costs for extra security, tendency to hold some inventory rather than just in time, and no new internet bubble(been there, done that) and some retrenchment or at least stabilization of globalization effect with current turbulence. Also peace dividend is obviously somewhat shot and of great importance is the fact that growing gargantuan surpluses as far as the eye can see are gone thus losing downward pressure on interest rates over time. So it sounds like we have all the ingredients of a cyclical bull soon to be realized but coming out of it we'll have Fed tightening once economy improves and all that money gets sucked up again. Long term positive secular trends have also disappeared within a matter of a year or so. The result is guess what? A cyclical bull in what will now be within the context of a secular bear. So for those still over invested such as myself it sounds like try to ride to the top of a cyclical bull and then play rope-a-dope with a big measure of fixed income etc. It seems like Bob's assessment and speculation about where the market is in the grand scheme of things is making more and more sense in terms of facts and trends on the ground. Marc

To: marc ultra who wrote (1547)	10/29/2001 12:58:43 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 10065

I'm not a medical expert, and am just relaying stuff I have heard in the following. The steam iron idea is said to deal with the ineffectiveness of dry heat, but might be time-consuming. Another suggestion I have heard that would apply for everyone is to wash one's hands with soap and warm water after handling mail. They say that it takes a high number of spores to make a person sick, and although spores could presumably get transferred from one piece of mail to another, I wonder if the number of spores that most people received through such a process might be small enough that the hand-washing routine would be sufficient for the average person. With regard to microwaving mail, some musical instrument makers I know have used microwave ovens to dry out pieces of wood, and they say that it is necessary to put a glass of water in with the wood to absorb some of the microwave energy, in order to avoid damaging the klystron tube in the oven. I would think that the same considerations would apply to microwaving paper. I saw on one of the news channels where the sterilization of mail is expected to damge photographic film and credit cards. I don't know how that problem is going to be dealt with.