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To: long-gone who wrote (78938)10/29/2001 9:03:28 AM
From: jrinvestor  Respond to of 116972
 
<<<<CNBC just reported there was a Barrons article that said Larry Kudlow was a top pick for next Fed Chairman to replace Greenspan!!!!!!! >>>>>> I am sure that was another joke by the talking heads. The real truth is that GOLD and SILVER just may test its highs of May 18-21, 2001 sooner then later. JR



To: long-gone who wrote (78938)10/29/2001 9:23:48 AM
From: Alex  Respond to of 116972
 
Gold Interest Up...............

SURVEY - QUARTERLY REVIEW OF PERSONAL FINANCE: Bullion attracts more attention: GOLD by Adrienne Roberts: The public is beginning to show a renewed interest in the long out-of-favour metal, with enquiries rising on how to invest
Financial Times; Oct 27, 2001
By ADRIENNE ROBERTS

Private investors have been showing an unusual degree of interest in gold bullion in recent weeks, although there has been slippage in the gold price most recently.

Several banks report a sharp increase in enquiries and bullion traders' dealing rooms are receiving more calls from the public and would-be private investors.

In the weeks following the September 11 attacks on the US, TheBullionDesk.com, an online precious metals portal, saw a fourfold increase in traffic.

"We have been attracting one new user every second during our afternoons and one every two seconds during our mornings," says Ross Norman, director.

The problem is gold has been out of favour for so long that the UK bullion trading community has closed most of its coin and bar counters.

The Bullion Desk says it has shelved the launch of a trading system it designed to enable retail investors to participate in the gold market because of a lack of interest from the trading community.

"I think the gold market is surprised to find that there are potential investors out there. I don't think it really knows how to deal with them," says Matthew Schwab, head of precious metals trading at Barclays Capital.

The stock market boom and a proliferation of investment alternatives have pushed gold to the sidelines in recent years - not to mention the fact that the dollar gold price has declined from peaks of more than Dollars 800 an ounce in the 1980s to Dollars 290 at present.

But a more uncertain global environment has focused attention on gold's strengths once more.

The metal is reassuringly tangible; it tends to be a good hedge against inflation; it tends to move in the opposite direction to shares and bonds; and, unlike most financial assets, it does not represent anyone else's liability.

Moreover, several analysts have upgraded their predictions of where prices are headed.

For those who favour gold as a hedge, the most direct way of gaining exposure to it is in the form of coins or gold bars from outlets such as Gold Investments and Baird & Co.

Bars can offer better value for money, mainly because coins have higher fabrication costs.

However, for investors who would like to avoid the costs associated with storing physical gold, some banks are finding other ways to meet the new demand for bullion.

UBS, the Swiss banking group, has a new gold investment product aimed at the retail and institutional market. Called the Gold Key, it is available through private client managers or brokers.

The Gold Key is a security based on the gold price with a time to maturity of about three months. It may be bought or sold like a share and, according to their market view, investors can buy either a Bull or a Bear Key.

The instrument uses leverage, so, for example, for every Dollars 2 movement in the gold price the Gold Key might gain or lose Dollars 10. This means the upside is unlimited, but investors' losses are limited to the price they paid for the instrument.

Barclays Capital is launching a group of gold-linked bonds, which are straightforward fixed income instruments.

The bonds offer different options, depending on the relative importance the investor attaches to a guaranteed interest rate, principal protection or participation in upward moves in the gold price. There is one option that pays no interest but is entirely redeemable in gold, which can be put on deposit with Barclays.

"The market has spent the last seven to 10 years tooling up (in expectation of) central bank sales and producer hedges, so all the intellectual capital invested in the gold market has been invested in these areas. We need to retool and also to educate people," says Mr Schwab.

The more traditional way to gain exposure to gold is indirectly through the equity market, whether in the form of a gold unit trust or a little judicious stock picking for one's private portfolio.

Assuming you think the gold price is on the way up, Graham Birch, who manages Merrill Lynch's Gold & General Fund, says the key is to identify which shares are most sensitive to fluctuations in the gold price.

"Our preference is for mining companies that don't hedge their production and for those that are in production rather than just in exploration," he adds.

Mines such as South Africa's Harmony and Newmont in the US avoid locking in a future selling price, giving their shareholders maximum exposure to gold.

Merrill Lynch holds about 30 different gold shares, which diversifies the geographic risk. "Anyone building a gold share portfolio needs to look at the same kind of things that we do, such as management issues and geographic spread," says Mr Birch.

The Gold & General Fund has come into its own this year. In the week ending October 5, it was showing a return of 29 per cent for the year.

Copyright: The Financial Times Limited

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