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To: Les H who wrote (898)	10/29/2001 9:41:15 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29609

What to expect now. October 29, 2001, Ord Oracle marketweb.com We were faced with a dilemma today on the General Electric puts. There are significant bottoms cycles coming due not until November 20 to 24, one week after November option expiration week. Therefore, there was a chance that GE may not bottom until after option expiration week. Nothing has negated the sell signal on GE and we anticipate a retracement down to the 31.50 area. The timing of this retracement was worrying us; therefore, we rolled into December option contract, producing a 65% loss on the November 35 puts. We are now holding the GE December 35 puts. Friday another bearish "Upthrust" was triggered (The S&P had one on October 17 also) and today's decline suggest the topping process may be done for the short term. We shorted the SPY on the close of Friday at 110.32. Our downside target is the 97 level. We are short the SPX at 1091.61, downside target near 970 level. I might add that the bearish "Specialist Trap" triggered on October 12 is still in effect and has not been negated. The NDX did produce an "Upthrust" Thursday and Friday of last week and was confirmed today. We were hoping for a "Specialist Trap" trigger before a sell signal is triggered. To refresh, a "Specialist Trap" is a failure of a break out to the upside. The trigger is when the market trades below the low of the break out day. On the NDX, it would be a trade below last Thursday lows of 1374.65 and on the QQQ a trade below 34.23. A good target for the low is four times the range of the break out day, subtracted from the low of the break out day. For the NDX, a downside target of 965 is implied. For the QQQ, a target of 24 is implied. We shorted the QQQ today at a limit of 34.22 (One tick below the low of the break out day). The XAU may consolidate to the first part of November before the strongest part of the up-move begins and that up-move may last into next year. The cycles point to November 3 to 7 for the end of the consolidation. Still, most gold stocks are making higher highs on increased volume and remains in a bullish up-trend since the November 2000 low. Our upside target on the XAU is still 95 minimum.