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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (43672)	10/29/2001 8:35:25 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

TSUNAMI coming, and US stocks will die on the vine bigger Q? how many S&P500 companies go bankrupt in 2002 ??? Global Crossing was recently delisted canny savvy Winnick sold $600m in stock last year can they avoid the hangman? strong assets to be sure, but no core cash cow after USWest skipped town Polaroid recently filed Chapter 11 -- dead oops, gone in an instant, right before your eyes Bethlehem Steel recently filed Ch 11 -- dead what banker fool lent them money, good $ after bad? they tried to blow sunshine up Bessy's skirt but all they found were withered loins approaching the gallows: Xerox, LTV Steel and a gaggle of diddly computerdom players maybe even Gateway? Xerox has 6 times the debt as compared to its mktcap LTV burned thru another $200m since summertime give one of them to me, jagoffs !!!!! the rally just completed a run that reminds me of a twin engine Cessna it climbed 5000 ft in 5 minutes its pilot was feeling real patriotic he was pushed by reports of all the gasoline he needed but the engine needs a thorough OVERHAUL the baggage compartment is overloaded with debt its cylinders are damaged from terrorist bombs its air intake has allowed contaminated oxygen into air chambers finding another pilot is futile, since they are hiding scared this here plane is out of momentum, STALLED and the pilot (investors) will probably bail out with parachutey whilst they can in the April/May rally, we had real double fisted thumpers who believed in an economic recovery late in the year the market gave the economy plenty of time and rope it waited clear up to August to say OOOPS not gonna happen this time... why? the WTC/Pentagon after shocks have caused severe damage have you ever seen a drunk try to stand up? give him some oxygen, rub up his shoulders, give him a pep talk, call him Champ, then kick him in the gut what happens? he falls again, even if he is holding a little flag this is sad it is unpatriotic to allow a deep recession to occur especially when enemy external forces have contributed to weakness but it is inevitable and inexorable, locked into history's next chapter it will be longer and deeper than expected just ask Warren Buffet I expect the stock market major indexes to take a crapp it started today, with a critical crack opening up curiously, it cracked worser on the techridden Naz (-4%) but it looked worser on the Dow (-3%) the recession during the early 1970's was worldwide the unison chorus of international weakness makes it REAL tough no continent will help the US economy here, NONE in fact, watch Japan enter the abyss this summer I had some fun with the TSUNAMI well, hang onto your floating cushions because it is about 3-6 weeks away from happening FULL TILT Japan changed some bankruptcy laws a couple weeks ago it allows more generous bankrupt cleanups now a race to declare bankruptcy is happening Nikkei has blindly followed the Naz and Dow and S&P but are 10x more likely to be doomed Nikkei climbed up over 10,000 again but it will hit 6000 before springtime or I will eat any collection of soiled shorts prepared for me the catastrophe in Japan will have worldwide consequences China's emergence is Japan's death knell we may see a diluted repeat of 1991-92 this year and next whereby colossal sums of Japanese money fled to the USA I read that between $600-700 billion came to USA back then that assisted in the US economic recovery that began in 1994 on a smaller scale it will happen again in coming months their financial system is in TOTAL SHAMBLES get ready for the TSUNAMI coming to Atlantic shores real soon, skipping Pacific coast Japanese Fruitcake Economics guarantees it they steadfast refusal to REFLATE will result in continued and climactic DEFLATIONARY DEVASTATION Dow back to 8500 in a flash NazComp back to 1500 in a flash Nikkei back to 8000 in a flash the Japanese Yen currency will soon get destroyed it might go to 150 per dollar, perhaps higher, now around 120 as money flees Japan, Yen will crumble cheaper Yen means exporting potential renewed but several big banks will go bankrupt this will be so so so UGLY reco: short Nikkei (basket or option puts) / jim