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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (379)	10/30/2001 9:34:52 AM
From: marynell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

"There is a big bull market in commodities in preparation. This is a repeat of 1973-74. The timing is just a little hard to guess." Claude, I respectfully disagree. The world is rapidly falling into depression. Commodities will not rally unless the dollar falls substantially. Now that we are in a war, the government can use all of its tricks and coercion to keep the dollar up and commodities down. The next bull market in commodities may be 15 years away.

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (379)	10/31/2001 12:16:36 AM
From: kirby49	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

C.C. By 73/4 the equity bear was just about over so maybe we're at 72. Other differences though because of the times. Vietnam just ending, not the beginning of a war. First oil crisis when the Arabs took advantage of weak US leadership surrounding Nixon, his VP before him and Ford following. The boomers were just trickling into a very needing employment market that didn't get saturated until later in the decade. When the government creates inflation, the question is where does the money go and what are the consequences. The government created money in the sixties and it went into defense spending for the Vietnam war. I don't know where else it went as I only entered the workforce starting with the consequences. Wage and price increases were hard to keep up with. From 1970 to 1975 my salary quadrupled. Mortgage rates doubled from 6 to 12 %. When government stepped in to control this with wage and price controls, only the wage controls worked. Of course mortgage rates almost redoubled after that to top out at about 22% in 1982. We all know what gold did. With Easy Al having been running the presses for three to four years now with the big kahuna of the last 200 billion sloshing around out there since 911, it's should be time for the consequences. The war may keep them inflating for a while yet but then look out. The one thing I'm puzzling over right now is real estate prices. I learned during the eighties that real estate was a hedge against inflation. I wonder whether that was just a consequence of the last inflation period and not always true. Perhaps the increase in RE prices in the 80's was a result of the fight against inflation, not the inflation itself and if they fight it differently, perhaps in this case things will be different. Many are saying the prices may plummet with all the layoffs and uncertainty surrounding everything right now. Could be just depending on local conditions in real estate as TO market is still rising slightly whereas I'm sure San Jose is not. Just some thoughts, but my conclusion still remains the same. Don't sell your gold at the beginning of a war. Regards Bob