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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sully- who wrote (43694)10/30/2001 1:57:47 PM
From: Dealer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
Hourly In Play®






Updated: 30-Oct-01 13:00 ET

12:56 ET Philip Morris (MO) 47.72 -1.96 (-4%): -- Update -- Salomon Smith Barney defending stock; does not expect any downward surprises; notes that Germany, Argentina, and Turkey (mentioned in Goldman Sachs reduction of the stock) are not major parts of MO's business; firm reiterates Buy rating.

12:47 ET Volume : Total volume traded is turning at a solid clip. The Nasdaq has already cracked 1 billion shares and the NYSE has turned over 724 million shares.

12:45 ET Sector Watch: Storage : Group demonstrating relative strength in the face of broader market weakness. Specific names bidding higher include: Brocade Communications (BRCD +2.4%), QLogic (QLGC +1.3%) and Network Appliance (NTAP +3.6%).

12:29 ET CVS Corp (CVS) 23.88 -7.74 (-24.5%): -- Update -- Merrill Lynch downgrades to near-term NEUTRAL from Accumulate following this morning's earnings warning, says 2002 should have been a bounce-back year for the company. Long-term rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy, reflecting gross margins that appear to have structurally weakened in the industry.

12:23 ET Viisage Tech (VISG) 13.69 +0.26 (+1.9%): Announces that it has teamed with Pelco, the world's largest manufacturer of video security systems, to implement the first use of face-recognition technology at a U.S. airport. The system became successfully operational at Fresno Yosemite International Airport on Friday, October 26th.

12:15 ET Drug Store Downgrades : Merrill Lynch downgrades Walgreen (WAG 32.44 -0.84) and Rite Aid (RAD 5.94 -0.35) to long term ACCUMULATE from Buy.

11:52 ET VeriSign (VRSN) 40.65 +0.99 (+2.5%) : -- Technical -- Worth watching both today and over the next several sessions. Oversold on the near-term indicators as it has come down from 53.00 to current price levels in a matter of just three sessions. Successfully tested support in the area of 38.50 and has bounced hard on strong volume. Look for initial resistance in the area of congestion at 42.00 followed up by subsequent overhead at its 50-day simple moving average of 43.80. To the downside, we would become more cautious on VRSN if it were to break down intraday and close below its prior close at 39.66.

11:42 ET Enron Corp (ENE) 11.25 -2.56 (-18.5%): In a pre-market note, Bernstein commented on ENE debacle; feels that near term crisis increases the need for liquidity. Given that asset sales could take too long, believes that a takeover makes sense, with a name such as Royal Dutch/Shell able to provide quick balance sheet support; infusion of private capital also a possibility. Thinks company capable of maintaining credit worthiness on its own through asset sales and bank credit... Separately, hearing from traders that at least one major institutional seller is unwinding a position in the stock.

11:36 ET Exchange Traded Funds : Decidedly bearish session for the ETFs with only Malaysia (+1.5%), REIT index (+0.1%) and Australia (+0.1%) up on the day. Weakest links today being led by Taiwan (-6.8%), Internet (-6.6%), Fortune 50 Tracking Stock (-5.5%), Biotech HOLDRs (-5.4%) and Oil Service HOLDRs (-4.8%).

11:30 ET Cisco Systems (CSCO) 16.58 +0.17 (+1.0%): -- Update -- Has edged into positive ground on solid relative volume. Morgan Stanley was out this morning with favorable comments regarding the company's market share in Europe (see 8:06 ET comment).

11:26 ET Juniper Ntwks (JNPR) 23.10 -0.90 (-3.4%): --Update-- Buckingham Research reports that in recent article from Network World's "The Edge" specifics of JNPR's next generation high-end core router were detailed; says article confirms firm's expectations that this product is at least finishing Beta or is about to begin commercial availability. Firm expecting rollout by Q102 with rev recognition by Q2, a qtr earlier than firm had previously expected; thinks rollout being timed to be incorporated in service providers' 2002 capex budgets.

11:08 ET Rumor Mill : Market chatter that Adobe (ADBE 29.22 -1.12, -3.7%) will use Analyst Meeting this evening to trim 2002 guidance by a few pennies.

11:04 ET White Elec Designs (WEDC) 6.44 +0.24 (+3.9%): Company highlighting its relationship with Lockheed Martin following LMT's selection as prime contractor for the $200 billion Joint Strike Fighter Program. WEDC expects a "very positive outlook" stemming from the award; says has won designs and has become a key supplier of many of the Multi-Chip Packages that are utilized in the sub-systems of the Joint Strike Fighter... volume 161K.

11:04 ET Sector Watch: Oil Service : The sector embarked on a strong second leg higher near Mid-Oct while at the same time crude oil prices were drifting lower. Today, however, the group is getting hit in the wake of the downgrade (see 08:39 comment) and the warning from RIG (expects Q4 EPS of $0.18-$0.23 vs consensus of $0.33). While the OSX index (at 82.40) is off the low of the day, need to see a recovery beyond the 84 area to improve the short term negative bias.

10:47 ET Chico's FAS (CHS) 24.23 -3.59 (-12.9%): Retailer's shares under pressure after Dain Rauscher Wessels lowers estimates; firm reduces its Oct comps forecast to 5% from 10% and Q3 EPS estimate to $0.29 from $0.30. Revisions based on a change in the company's marketing plan.

10:31 ET S&P 500 : -- Technical -- The index is in the process of testing a support at 1056. While this has held firm on initial penetration attempts, the first step to help neutralize the firmly weaker bias is a recovery back through 1060. A more important secondary resistance is in the 1066/1068 area. Failure leaves the door open to 1045 (38% retracement of Sep/Oct rally).

10:24 ET IBM (IBM) 108.60 -0.02 (-0.02%): -- Update -- Big Blue announces plan to repurchase up to an additional $3.5 bln worth of its stock.

10:20 ET Market Movers : Genomics stock Sequenom (SQNM 7.23 +1.08, +17.5%) trades up after company's Chief Scientific Officer appears on CNBC... Recent IPO Given Imaging (GIVN 8.98 +0.88, +10.9%)) running for second consecutive day in reaction to initial coverage by underwriting firms; today, CSFB starts with Buy rating and $17 target; GIVN debuted Oct 4 at $12 (range since IPO $13.44 to $7.20).

10:15 ET Sector Watch: Cruise Lines : Group was hit hard in the wake of the attack by downgrades and estimates cuts. However, Royal Caribbean (RCL +11.58) has come through with stronger than expected earnings this morning (beat by $0.09 per share). Competitors Carnival (CCL +3.2%) and P&O Princess (POC +1.1%) have risen in sympathy. However, RCL failed to breach the early month high (11.20) and has been hit by profit taking. Support is still intact at its 20 day exp ma (9.9) with the bottom of today's gap (9.47) providing a secondary floor.

10:10 ET Anthem (ATH) 40.35 +4.35: -- Update -- IPO opens for trading at $40.50.

10:03 ET Oracle Corp (ORCL) 13.31 -0.09 (-0.7%): Hearing from sources at Soundview that the firm believes ORCL won a $200 mln contract from a financial services company; nonetheless says deal may not be a quarter changer.

10:02 ET Consumer Confidence : Making new lows on the Equity Indices in reaction to a weaker than expected Consumer Confidence report of 85.5, well below the 95.9 consensus. The Confidence Index falls to its lowest level since 1994.

09:56 ET IPO Pricing : National health benefits company, Anthem (ATH), prices its 48 mln share IPO at $36 per share. The Goldman Sachs led deal is currently indicated to open at $40.50.

09:54 ET RehabCare Grp (RHB) 38.70 unch (delayed): Issue indicated to open $$30-$33 after company guides down for Q4. EPS for the qtr expected to post between $0.41 and $0.42 vs $0.46 consensus.

09:48 ET Nasdaq Composite : -- Technical -- Gaps lower off the open an in the process takes out both its 20 exp and 50 simple moving averages (1685/1680). This will provide resistance as the market begins the stabilization process with a secondary resistance barrier in the 1700/1705 area. Failure exposes next support in the 1660/1650 congestion area.

09:46 ET LM Ericsson (ERICY) 4.12 -0.01 (-0.2%): Wit SoundView positive on issue following WSJ report that Cingular has chosen ERICY, NOK and Siemens as the winners of infrastructure awards for its next generation technology. While this has been rumored for weeks, the actual award still represents a huge win for the GSM camp. Firm has gotten more constructive on ERICY since the earnings call, and believes the Cingular deal will help company gain momentum in the U.S. market.

09:40 ET eMerge Interactive (EMRG) 1.32 -0.06 (-4.4%): NY Times highlights a new device developed by government scientists to detect microscopic bits of manure on beef carcasses, a major cause of food poisoning, that could soon make meat safer. According to the article, the device has been licensed to eMerge. Company will soon install test units in several slaughterhouses. If packers are satisfied with the way the technology works, commercial units are expected to be in operation by late next year or in 2003, company officials said.

09:36 ET Sector Watch : Firmly negative start with the downside leadership from yesterday continuing to pace the way this morning (Internet -3.6%, biotech -1.9%, semiconductor -1.3, networking -1.8%, software -1%). Also on the defensive are computer-hardware, chemical, broker/dealer. Little in the plus column other than gold.

09:25 ET Gapping Up/Down : CWLD +29% (agrees to be acquired by IBM), ODWA +28% (being bought by Coke), GSTRF +24% (extension of yesterday's QCOM-related momentum), AXYX +16% (reports positive trial data), MFNX +10% (Sony news)... Gapping Down: MVSN, OPWV -24%, and CSGS trading 23%-26% lower after cutting guidance; HOMS (-12%) hit by Goldman downgrade.

09:15 ET Tuesday Morning (TUES) 13.35: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.02 per share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus of $0.00; revenues fell 8.7% year/year to $129 mln vs the $131.1 mln consensus. Comfortable with Q4 EPS estimate of $0.66-$0.68 (consensus $0.67)

09:14 ET Gilead Sciences (GILD) 65.55: Morgan Stanley downgrades to OUTPERFORM from Strong Buy; following yesterday's FDA approval of Viread with a very broad and clean label, firm believes much of the near-term news is reflected in GILD's share price; downgrade comes as share price has neared its $78 target and appreciation may be more modest in the near term.

09:10 ET Metromedia Fiber (MFNX) 0.70: Sony Pictures Digital Entertainment selects Metromedia as its outsourced Internet infrastructure managed service provider for the recently launched Screenblast's two-way interactive web site environment.

09:07 ET Conseco (CNC) 4.04: Reports Q3 net of $0.18 a share, in line with consensus, vs yr-ago EPS of $0.12. Raises Q4 guidance to $0.17-$0.20 (mean $0.16).

09:05 ET RSA Security (RSAS) 11.20: Announced the sale of an additional $20 mln of its Convertible Subordinated Debentures due October 17, 2004.

09:03 ET Hispanic Brdcstng (HSP) 18.01: Robertson Stephens downgrades to MKT PERFORM from Buy based on valuation; thinks estimates will come down.

08:59 ET McDonald's (MCD) 27.28: Robertson Stephens reiterates its Buy rating on the shares; notes that yesterday the company guided 2002 EPS to $1.47-$1.54 versus consensus of $1.54; the firm's one-year price target is $33 or 22x its 2002 estimate of $1.50, which represents MCD's 10-year historical P/E multiple.

08:52 ET HCA-Healthcare (HCA) 39.55: Merrill Lynch selects HCA for inclusion on its Focus One List and reiterates its BUY rating; believes its is among the leading health care services companies in the U.S.; notes that HCA has posted EPS gains of 20% or better in eight of the last nine quarters; believes visibility on the company meeting or exceeding EPS ests over the next 4-6 quarters is high given the strong industry and company fundamental backdrop.

08:48 ET Campbell Soup (CPB) 28.01: Company raised guidance for Q1 (Oct); now expects diluted EPS of $0.40-$0.42 vs the Multex consensus of $0.34. Company experienced stronger than expected increase in consumer purchases of U.S. soup and sauces following the attack.

08:41 ET Transocean Sedco (RIG) 32: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.28 per share, $0.02 better than the Multex consensus of $0.26; revenues rose 2.4% year/year to $770.2 mln vs the $773.1 mln consensus.

08:39 ET Oil Services Downgrades : ABN AMRO downgrading a host of names in the oil services sector following 45% surge in the OSX over the past month; believes stocks are overbought relative to the potential impact the recent turnaround in gas prices will have in the next several qtrs on domestic drilling demand and sector profitability... Downgrades the following names to HOLD from Add: NE, GLM, ESV, SDC, NBR.

08:35 ET CVS Corp (CVS) 31.62: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.30 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.30; revenues rose 10.1% year/year to $5.41 bln vs the $5.42 bln consensus. Warns for Q4; now expects EPS between $0.23-$0.28 vs the consensus of $0.48, revenue expected to rise 8-9%; for FY02 targets EPS between $1.67-$1.76 vs current consensus of $2.04.

08:35 ET Macrovision (MVSN) 33.47: SG Cowen downgrades to Buy from Strong Buy; says the Q3 drop in DVD sales could be a fluke but further clouds visibility; expects DVD growth to rebound in Q4, but also sees low visiblity in the market for digital pay-per-view; sets a new price target of $30-$33 down from $35-$40.

08:32 ET Axonyx (AXYX) 4.495: Company announces positive safety and efficacy results from Phase II Proof of Concept clinical study of Alzheimer's Disease treatment Phenserine.

08:29 ET eFunds (EFDS) 15.32: Bear Stearns downgrades to NEUTRAL from Attractive following earnings report.

08:27 ET Verizon Comms (VZ) 50.19: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.78 per share (includes a $0.03 per-share impact related to the Sept. 11 attack), $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of $0.77; revenues rose 2.8% year/year to $17.00 bln vs the $16.93 bln consensus. For Q4 EPS, including an impact from Sept. 11 restoration efforts of approximately $0.03, expects to report between $0.77-$0.80 (consensus $0.81).

08:25 ET Celera Genomics (CRA) 25.00: Thomas Weisel downgrades to Market Perform from Buy; cites lack of visibility of its genomics-derived drug pipeline and its view that the company lacks near-term upside catalysts; believes the market for Celera's genome database could peak at $150 mln to $200 mln in two to three years, as the freely available public database nears completion.

08:25 ET Active Power (ACPW) 5.30: Salomon Smith Barney downgrades to OUTPERFORM from Buy to reflect a clouded outlook; firm remains positive on the technology, and sees little price downside from current levels... Banc of America starting coverage of stock with a Mkt Perform rating; believes attractive long-term outlook and strong cash position are offset by near-term demand uncertainty.

08:18 ET Vaxgen (VXGN) 14.80: Tumbles 27% in pre-market after company announces that the Data and Safety Monitoring Board recommended that the study of company's AIDSVAX drug continue to its planned conclusion at the end of 2002. The DSMB would have recommended concluding the trial prematurely if the vaccine had proven effective ahead of schedule.

08:17 ET Perot Systems (PER) 17: Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.16 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.16; revenues rose 9.0% year/year to $301.0 mln vs the $308.0 mln consensus. Warns for Q4 revenue; now expects between $302-$315 mln vs the consensus of $322.7 mln. For 2002 expects revenue growth between 15-20% and EPS growth between 15-22%.

08:17 ET Newmont Mining (NEM) 21.66: Prudential upgrades to HOLD from Sell; raises price target to $21 from $15; cites better than expected operational and cost performance in the company's third quarter; raises FY01 ests to $(0.08) from $(0.31); raises FY02 ests to $(0.06) from $(0.31).

08:13 ET Solectron (SLR) 13.00: JP Morgan downgrades to Long-Term Buy from Buy; says overarching supply chain strategy is powerful but expensive and confusion remains about near term/long term financial performance.

08:07 ET Titan Corp (TTN) 26.35: -- Update -- Company awarded indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity (ID/IQ), Program Management Support Services Blanket Purchase Agreement (BPA) by the U.S. Air Force Air Armament Center to participate with three other companies in a program to provide advisory and assistance service in support of Department of Defense Joint Test and Evaluation (JT&E) programs. The program has a maximum value of $400 mln.

08:05 ET Morgan Stanley on Networking in Europe : Several interesting statistics based on Morgan Stanley's interview of 150 companies in Europe (majority of interviews completed after Sept. 11: 1) About 88% of resellers indicated that they met of exceeded their Q3:01 growth expectations in Europe, with 73% posting flat to up revenues; 2) Roughly 57% of resellers indicated that pricing became moderately (40%) or significantly more (17%) competitive during calendar Q3:01 and 3) The number of companies that indicated Cisco had become a larger part of their mix was nearly double the number who said they had become a smaller portion of revenues; suggests CSCO is gaining share.

08:05 ET Odwalla (ODWA) 11.83: Enters definitive agreement to be acquired by Coca-Cola Company (KO) for $15.25 per share in cash.

08:02 ET QUALCOMM (QCOM) 52.30: CSFB reducing estimates ahead of Nov. 6 earnings report; sees results in-line this qtr, but expects DecQ guidance to be cautious; lowers DecQ est. to $0.26 from $0.29; firm reducing FY02 est to $1.10 from $1.22; price target cut to $60 from $65 based on the new estimates.

07:59 ET Eastman Kodak (EK) 29.87: Lehman Brothers out with cautious comments on the stock this morning; believes Wal-Mart is set to introduce a private label film offering which it sees as a negative for EK; says new product introduction could cause share shifts and destabilize industry pricing.

07:58 ET Opening Indications : This morning's fair value figures -- S&P 500 fair value: 1080, closed 7 pts below fair value. Nasdaq 100 fair value: 1379, closed 8 pts below fair value. Current indications: S&P 500 futures are -3.00, or 10 pts below fair value. Nasdaq 100 is -15.50, or 23.5 pts below fair value... Equity futures have improved a bit, but "credible" threat briefing and downgrades of top techs JNPR, EBAY, OPWV weighing on pre-market.

07:56 ET Dell Computer (DELL) 24.09: Merrill Lynch trimming estimates based on the continuing economic malaise in the U.S. and Europe along with softening in IT demand; Q4 rev estimate goes to $7.5 bln from $7.8 bln; rev outlook for FY03 goes to $33.1 bln from $34.7 bln and EPS to $0.75 from $0.80. Thinks DELL on track to meet OctQ outlook of $0.15-$0.16.

07:52 ET eBay (EBAY) 52.52: -- Update -- ABN AMRO downgrades to HOLD from Add based on valuation and the reduced likelihood of material upside in 2002. Given stock's rich valuation of 72.9x 2002 estimates, believes EBAY needs to significantly outperform expectations in order to grow into its multiple; yesterday's investor meeting suggested such upside may not be achievable.



To: Sully- who wrote (43694)10/30/2001 2:23:06 PM
From: Dealer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 65232
 
07:52 ET eBay (EBAY) 52.52: -- Update -- ABN AMRO downgrades to HOLD from Add based on valuation and the reduced likelihood of material upside in 2002. Given stock's rich valuation of 72.9x 2002 estimates, believes EBAY needs to significantly outperform expectations in order to grow into its multiple; yesterday's investor meeting suggested such upside may not be achievable.

Wstera02!

Sorry! I did not mean to post the whole "In Play" in the last post, just the downgrade on EBAY.