To: fedhead who wrote (9454 ) 11/1/2001 12:55:09 PM From: Bill Harmond Respond to of 57684 From Briefing: UTStarcom (UTSI) 23.39 -0.08: This provider of wireless, wireline and broadband access equipment is holding in well this morning following Salomon Smith Barney's reiteration of its Outperform rating. Briefing.com was positive on UTStarcom as recently as September 5th and since then the shares have returned 43.9%. This begs the obvious question of whether it remains attractive near current prices. UTSI is different from other telecom companies in the sense that nearly all of its sales are in China. Not surprisingly, the telecom market is very different in China as compared to the U.S. The world's most populous country is still in the early stages of its telecom infrastructure development and the Chinese government has made it a high priority. China's demand for communications services is highlighted by its relatively low teledensity rate, which is a measure of the number of lines per hundred people. According to 1999 statistics from the International Telecommunication Union, China, with a population of 1.3 billion, has a teledensity rate of only 8.6% compared to teledensity rates in Brazil of 14.9%, in the United Kingdom of 57.5%, and in the United States of 68.2%. While growth in the China communications market is driven predominantly by voice services, the increasing demand for data services also presents a growing opportunity. According to Salomon, China Telecom expects its PAS (Personal Access System) subscriber base to reach 5-6 million by the end of this year, up from 4 million at the end of September. In 2002, the company expects 150-300% growth in its PAS subscriber base to 15-20 million subscribers. UTStarcom has also indicated its overall business remains very strong -- the company is roughly 100% booked for both the fourth quarter of 2001 and the first quarter of 2002. Generally at this point in the quarter the company is 100% booked for the current quarter and 60-70% booked for the next quarter. Fundamentally, UTSI trades at 36.1x estimates for this year and carries a forward multiple of approximately 26.7x. With torrid growth in its PAS technology and a large unpenetrated market in China, we continue to like UTSI at current levels. We wouldn't be surprised if it were trading in the range of 32 to 34 at some point in the first quarter of 2002. -- Mike Ashbaugh, Briefing.com