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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (10915)	10/30/2001 11:12:19 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

And with unemployment JUST STARTING to move up... this is going to get ugly for the banks and other financials... I'm shorting more on any uptick. I've moved my target for the S$P down to 800 for year end and 600 for year end '02... that should put me at the low end of wall street guru's and still well above the level 18 months from now.... ie. still looking smart, and yet too optimistic. dAK

To: KyrosL who wrote (10915)	10/31/2001 12:08:43 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

The similarity with Japanese banks must be generic - when the loans sour up, what a banker will (eventually desperately) try to do, is keep the post on the credit side of the book, for instance (in a ascending order of pain involved) a) refinance to longer term b) let the customer pay interest only c) let the custome re breather period of x years ... iow they're ready to forget the good ol' cash flow and adjust, as long as the item does not turn into an asset - i.e. foreclosure happens. Japanese banks are further down the road - they dont HAVE any loans to talk about (if you ignore CCC-type assets) and everybody would like to have his or her millions in the bank, even if the bank pays a cent-on-a-thou interest. No assets and bleeding deposits on top of that... Could that happen in US? I cant imagine. dj