Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hardly B. Solipsist who wrote (16288)	10/31/2001 1:33:14 PM
From: Qualified Opinion	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

Don't forget the Senior V.P. comments on Oct. 15th, link Link: biz.yahoo.com

To: Hardly B. Solipsist who wrote (16288)	11/13/2001 9:58:32 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

SSB:ORCL trades at 35x and 32x 02 and 03 EPS,PEG=3.5 Oracle Corporation (ORCL) ORCL: Another Downward Revision to Estimates 3H (Neutral, High Risk) Mkt Cap: $90,475.0 mil. November 13, 2001 SUMMARY * Based on comments from management and additional ENTERPRISE channel checks, we are lowering our ORCL estimates SOFTWARE again. We are lowering 2Q01 to $0.10 from $0.11. Gretchen Lowering 2002 to $0.44 from $0.46 and 2003 to $0.48 from Teagarden, CPA $0.50. * Lowering 2Q01 license revenue by 8.1% to $829 mil from $902 mil based on continued lack of visibility and Daniele Donahoe, deterioration in the selling environment. Believe the CFA quarter was adversely impacted by Sept. 11; however, our rating reflects long-term concerns over the maturity of the database market and competition from IBM# (1M) and MSFT (2H). * Lowering our license revenue from database as follows; 2Q01 down 2.4% to $620.4 mil from $635.9 mil. 2002 down 2.9% to $3.1 bil from $3.2 bil. 2003 down 7.6% to $3.2 bil from $3.48 bil. * ORCL trades at 35x and 32x our new 02 and 03 estimates. The NFY PEG is 3.5x, which we believe is an unwarranted premium given the lack of visibility. ESTIMATE REVISIONS * Lowering our license revenue from database as follows; 2Q01 down 2.4% to $620.4 million from $635.9 million 2002 down 2.9% to $3.1 billion from $3.2 billion. 2003 down 7.6% to $3.2 billion from $3.48 billion. Oracle's database business represented 73% of license revenue in FY-2001. We believe sustained deterioration in this business could adversely impact bottom line growth in the future. Competition in this segment is increasing which could result in additional pricing pressure in the database market. That said, it is hard to dispute that ORCL is the dominant vendor with superior database technology. We do believe this technical advantage could somewhat preserve ORCL's market share; however, we believe the relative maturity of the database market could result in slower than currently anticipated market growth. * We believe new applications projects are one of the lowest IT priorities in this environment and are trimming our applications numbers as follows; 2Q01 down 22.9% to $183 million from $237.4 million. 2002 down 12.8% to $877.3 million from $1 billion. 2003 down 27.9% to $907 million from $1.2 billion. Oracle entered into the applications business to drive revenue growth given the expected slowdown in the database market. We believe the suite is the correct approach, however, near-term and longer term issues cause us concern. In the near-term, we believe new applications projects are a very low IT budget priority. In the long-term, we believe pure applications vendors such as PeopleSoft will be significant competition based on technology, functionality and an applications-focused sales model.