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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry D who wrote (198)	10/31/2001 1:11:02 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Henry, I believe most investors already know that conditions will be bad for the sector for at least 6 more months. The question is how long can the semi manufacturers keep capex at these depressed levels before they run into trouble with bleeding edge capacity sometime next year. It has happened time and again in this sector; too much capacity, then drastic cutbacks leading to a paucity of capacity. We are going through the latter part now. does it have to do with excess capacity of equipment that was bought during the Y2K and internet bubble? Regardless of how big the "bubble" got, that equipment will only provide a competitive advantage for about 2.5 years before it needs to be repleaced. Regards, Brian