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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jordan A. Sheridan who wrote (62422)	11/1/2001 7:49:08 AM
From: alydar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

maybe i can shed some light on this situation. with the pc sales flatlining or declining, it really does not make a difference what the doj does at this point in time. the handwriting is on the wall. msft is making the transition to the internet as well as ibm made the transition to the pc. they both executed poorly. companies such as sap, orcl, sunw with complete internet solutions will be the tech leaders when we come out of this recession. xp is dead on arrival. it is incrementally better than previous os's not revolutionary. xp will only do as good as the pc industry. the days of os's driving growth in the segment are over. can anyone here really day they are excited to get there hand on passport, instant messaging, or new media player. msft bet the ranch on the wrong product. other companies are going to each their lunch in the future. that being said, msft will remain a hugely profitable and serious competitor. the only thing i am waiting for ist the day they start paying a dividend. it is not good having all that cash on hand. they should give it back to the shareholder much like the govt. is giving back money through tax credits. sadly, msft has become a dividend play. rocky.

To: Jordan A. Sheridan who wrote (62422)	11/1/2001 9:33:18 AM
From: Charles Tutt	Respond to of 74651

Back in prehistoric times, IBM attempted to ensure itself a recurring revenue stream from the PC by developing MCA, a (much) better bus than the then dominant "ISA" bus. Because the intellectual property underlying MCA was proprietary to IBM, they could charge a royalty on each machine incorporating it. Those royalties would amount to a sort of annuity, providing revenues to IBM regardless of their particular ups and downs in the PC market. Microsoft reportedly wishes to ensure itself an ongoing (and more steady) revenue stream from PCs, and there have been discussions in the computer press about XP's role in doing so (authentication, Passport, etc.) as well as their new licensing terms (encouraging more regular updates, moving towards a "subscription" model, etc.). That, too, can be interpreted as attempting to establish a revenue stream more like an annuity than one with strong product cycles. I hope that clarifies what I had in mind. BTW, IBM's MCA didn't do very well. The clone makers got together and countered with EISA, and also to some extent VLB. Eventually ISA, EISA, and VLB were replaced +/- by PCI. The market seems to have expressed its displeasure with IBM's attempt to move toward an annuity revenue model. JMHO, at any rate. Charles Tutt (TM)