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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (216)	11/1/2001 11:00:16 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

G, Thanks for the charts. Do you have data going back farther than '95? Your chart graphically shows the intensity of this downturn, being the only time that orders have not bounced back in anything even resembling a V. But we must remember that the uglier it gets, the better the upturn will be. That is a point that seems forgotten by most "experts." Long and Strong AMAT. BTW, KLIC up 14% today; will this once again prove to be a leading indicator? Regards, Brian

To: Gottfried who wrote (216)	11/1/2001 4:11:35 PM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Hmmm... Considering the false recovery in the ratio, looks like raw semiconductor shipments may be a more reliable recovery indicator than the ratio.

To: Gottfried who wrote (216)	11/2/2001 9:06:51 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Hi G, Once again thank you for your excellent contribution with these charts.I see some very helpful timing in the lower referenced charts ( shipments). Below are some thoughts and I would welcome some additional critiques - negative or positive. 1) As far as timing goes the shipment report is an excellent tool to use in "anticipating this long awaited turn" 2) In 96 shipments reversed up one month before orders bottomed.In 98 shipments reversed up two months before orders bottomed. Note that the slope of decline is becoming more horizontal.The degree that shipments can further fall is leveling off - step one to preceding an upturn. 3) The current level of orders are currently below the trough levels seen in 96 but yet still above the 98 trough levels. In either case we've got to be close.I venture to say we must be 30 -60 days away.Orders dropping below .5 billion has only been seen once before. The trough levels being lower in 98 than 96 is confusing to me.In 98 there were more products out there: telecom, wireless,and PC's.1996 was primarily oriented around PC's. Two variables that come to mind are: 1) Inventories - orders only occur when inventories are drawn down - how much product is out there in stock is a big question.One thing for sure - inventory is best drawn down when shipments pick up - something we are still waiting for.Once that happens orders are very close behind. 2) The y - axis is in dollars.When we see dram selling well below cost - even an article on flat panel displays now selling below cost ??? - well then $ of shipments become artificially low - units then become the first clue. I think the lower than .5 billion in orders in 98 may well have been the product of vicious price competition. This form of predatory price cutting is how the strong destroy the weak.They force closure thru economic insanity.Only the capitalized can afford to do this - they do it to make their share of the soon to turn future market larger and more powerful.The net result of this are fab closures and alliances/mergers.In short fewer players. The weak succumb. We are seeing this now and I believe this is perhaps the best positive indicator - second only to an increase in shipments,as that will draw down inventories. After that more orders amongst fewer players and a quicker recovery for those that survived. We're very close - in fact we're there. Any dip is a gift. Any purchase now will be a wealth defining moment for us all,as we look into the future with a long term view. A sincere note of thanks to G for his consistent diligence on forwarding the updates and a thanks to Brian who monitors these fab closure announcements with an unbelievable time commitment. If YOUR SHORT - GET LONG !!! IF YOUR LONG GET MORE !!! other interpretations welcomed Bob