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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (3512)	11/1/2001 1:03:49 PM
From: gold$10k	Respond to of 36161

Hi Isopatch, <<implosion of the greatest debt pyramid of all time... society that's vastly overextended in every direction you look and been living beyond it's means on a scale that's nothing short of mind boggling>> I again completely agree. ContraryInvestor.com and others have been making the point about debt for quite a while with charts that clearly illustrate how totally off the scale both household and corporate debt are. Also, using the stock market valuation as a "living beyond it's means" indicator, there's a chart on page 6 of Robert Shiller's book "Irrational Exuberance" which shows both the S&P Composite Stock Price and the S&P Composite Earnings in real (inflation adjusted) terms from 1860 to the present. It's the scariest chart I ever saw because it shows that while there is a long term correlation between price and earnings, the current disconnect between the two appears to be a factor of 3 larger than it was in the 60's. <<But an understanding of the broad sweep of historical trends leaves little doubt about what's unfolding before our eyes.>> Another amen! Regards, vt

To: isopatch who wrote (3512)	11/1/2001 1:49:57 PM
From: kingfisher	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Iso, I agree with your super cycle contraction theory. May I add the fact that North America's population is also aging. Old people do not spend much and require much smaller places to live. This continent is only 20 years away from matching Japan's current average age. Do not recall what the figure is but if I can find it will post. Look what has happened to Japanese consumption for the past 20 years. The trend will lean away from consumerism. I still get a chuckle thinking how politicians are urging people to defeat the enemy by heading out to KMart and stock up on more Tupperware. And I have no faith that 2 Texans will lead America down the correct road. What is bad for America is even worst for Canada. It is not the end of the world but people really need to do some soul searching.