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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (54995)	11/1/2001 2:34:48 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

OT market moves: In recessions, from what I've read, stocks start going up when the economic news is the worst. Of course, that point is only clear in retrospect. At any given moment, there is always the possibility of things getting worse. The market is currently pricing in a sharp rebound in economic activity, about 6 months from now. That's exactly what stocks were pricing in, during the January and April-to-June rallies. Investors were wrong then. Are they right this time? IMO, stocks are not pricing in a quick resolution of the war. They are pricing in a containment, a continual low level of "acceptable losses" (acceptable to the nation overall, not to the orphans). They are pricing in a monthly "body count" in the single-to-double digits, not in the thousands. This is a guerrila war, so success is measured by who dies, not who holds what ground. So far, in terms of Leaders Killed, they are ahead 3-0. And way ahead in the overall Body Count, as well. I am currently at 10% cash, which is a big change from 40% margin on 10/5. For now, I'm leaving my limit sell of AMAT at 40 (the lot I bought at 32.5). I have cancelled all sell orders for NTAP, the chart and recent management statements, and a comparison of NTAP vs. EMC (direction of margins and sales) makes me very bullish on them. 10% of my portfolio is NTAP LEAPS I bought when the stock was between 11 and 6. Holding the QCOM I bought at 40, will add more at 45. Won't sell any unless we hit 65 (strong resistance there). And so on. We are starting to see a "winnowing out" among tech stocks. When the Bull Market resumes, some former darlings of Mr. Market will be welcomed back with kisses and hugs. But some are going to be left out in the cold. The winners will be the ones that move first and strongest, the ones who have held up the best in the downturn, the ones whose management is now saying they are seeing a bottoming in business conditions, the ones who have stopped going down on bad news, the ones who have the financial strength to take advantage of this downturn, to dominate their sector on the rebound. Did you tell your buddy that, half the time, when Jacob rereads his old posts, he thinks, "Geez.......that was stream-of-consciousness bullshit, proven totally wrong by later events"?