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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Timetobuy who wrote (62474)	11/1/2001 4:30:17 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

<< I bet those people will just make due with what they have. >. Since I seem to have a big mouth today, let me take a crack at this one. There are millions of pirated copies of Windows and Office. XP makes it much more difficult to do this because you have to initiate the software via the internet or a phone. Here's my wild guess on what happens in the next 3 years to these people that are running pirated software. 5% switch to another OS (ie. Linux) because they are pissed at MSFT for making them pay for an OS. 30% do nothing (for 3 years. After that, I'll bet they are forced to upgrade somehow). 5% learn how to crack the initialization code and again get a free copy. 60% purchase a legal copy of Windows and/or Office. Sounds like a Net Gain for MSFT in terms of sales. Sure, they lose some customers, but If I'm anywhere close to correct, they gain a lot more than they lose. IMO, Dave PS. Charles, Pirating is rampant, even in the US. There's an unbelievable amount of software in use that wasn't paid for.

To: Timetobuy who wrote (62474)	11/1/2001 5:09:07 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

I have to agree with Howe. Almost right down to the %. We are talking about the real world. It is illegal to jaywalk or cross the street on a red light but average people do it every day. It is not even a question of money. It's more a question of barriers. If people have a choice of getting a job done without paying anything or paying hundreds of dollars which way do you think they will go? Also consider this - if piracy was no real problem then why did microsoft spend zillions of dollars putting this system into place? I say they did a very thorough and costly study and found they make a bundle with this investment. So much money it is worth putting up with the risk of people defecting to other systems, the bad rap in the press and the cost of maintenance for the system. If Microsoft is right, and we do not know that yet, then XP adoptions over the next year or so will be much higher than thought.