To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2593 ) 11/1/2001 5:37:08 PM From: LTK007 Respond to briefing.com pretty level-headed commentary tonight---i missed the whole day so now seeing RS goosed the semis with yet another "the turn around is here--this IS the bottom",call on the semis--(this is about the 12th such call<or whatever>--and they keep saying a V recovery,rather then ever suggesting a modest flattish recovery)--briefing.com commentary-<<Dow +188.76 at 9263.90, Nasdaq +56.10 at 1746.30, S&P +24.32 at 1084.10 : [BRIEFING.COM] The fact that the market traded higher today may not come as much of a surprise... After all, there were reports early this morning that the antitrust case against Microsoft (MSFT +3.69) is on the verge of being settled, and that the settlement will be favorable for Microsoft... That headline was sure to provide a measure of support to the equity market today, but given the subdued manner in which the futures market traded after the release of that news, it didn't appear as if the talk of a settlement-- which the states have yet to agree to mind you-- was going to prompt the type of gains we saw today... But alas, it did, and that was even more remarkable given the dour economic news in the October NAPM Index that was released at 10ET... With the consensus estimate at 44.0%, it was not surprising to see the market's modest rally on the MSFT news get stopped in its tracks when the headline crossed the wires that the NAPM plunged to 39.8% from 47.0% in September... We should note that the pullback coincided with rumors that the U.S. embassy in Japan had been bombed... When those rumors were debunked, the market was quick to mount a rally effort, and to the surprise of many in the face of such discouraging economic news, the rally persisted throughout the day... In fact, the Nasdaq ended at its highs for the session while the Dow and S&P closed within a whisker of their best levels... In a nutshell, the market took the NAPM news in stride and sent a telling signal that it is not concerned with such gloomy reports for a couple of reasons... First, it has been groomed to expect such gloomy news for the remainder of the year, and secondly, it remains focused on the idea that the monetary and fiscal stimuli in the pipeline will foster an economic recovery by no later than the middle of next year... Aside from that consideration, the market also took some comfort in the idea that long-term rates are due to move lower following the Treasury's decision yesterday to do away with the 30-yr bond... The market's willingness to buy on this morning's dip, and the pullback seen this week, was helped, too, by a growing sense that business isn't getting any worse... That mentality served the semiconductor sector very well today as the latest SIA report on industry revenues for Sept. prompted Robertson Stephens to assert that it was an inflection point in y/y comparisons... Combined with the software stocks, the semiconductor issues led the strong tech advance... Buying interest, however, was broad-based and when the financial sector gathered some steam after a lackluster start, there seemed to be no stopping the market... Sellers were few and far between today as the market's resilience in the face of bad news, the positive vibes surrounding Microsoft, some very strong auto/truck sales for October, and solid leadership prompted reluctant investors to put sidelined cash back to work for fear of missing out on further gains; moreover, that resilience forced more short sellers to cover their positions which, in turn, augmented today's advance... As a reminder, the Oct. employment report will be the focus tomorrow... Briefing.com is expecting a 350K decline in nonfarm payrolls (consensus is -300K) and a 5.2% unemployment rate (consensus is 5.2%)... DJTA +1.7%... SOX +6.7%... NDX +4.4%...>> end quote from www.briefing.com.
