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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Paul Shread who wrote (23178)11/1/2001 6:38:00 PM
From: donald sew  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 52237
 
NOV 1 INDEX UPDATE
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Short-term technical readings:
DOW - lower midrange
SPX - midrange
OEX - midrange
NAZ - midrange
NDX - midrange
VIX - midrange
NAZ NET NEW HIGHs-LOWs = NEGATIVE 3

Back in the midrange. The FOMC meeting is next TUE, 2.5 trading days away, and my short-term technicals are back in the midrange. As mentioned often in the past it is common that my short-term technicals are in the midrange before/at/near FOMC meetings.

15 days ago I started selling calls against my QQQ leaps. The intraday highs that day was 35.25 and today it closed at 35.38. As bullish as some feel the market is, in 15 days the NDX/NAZ/QQQ really hasnt gone anywhere. Basicly the QQQ's has been trading in an approximate 3 point range from 33-36.

So the next question is whether the NAZ/NDX is churning before a rally continues, or churning before a selloff. The market internals just aint that impressive. With the NAZ up 56 points, the NAZ NET NEW HIs-LOs could not even break into positive territory. Yes, I am very well aware that the HI-LOs lags at time, so lets put it this way - if the HI-LOs do not improve significantly very soon, that would be a signficant hint today's rally may not have legs.

Not that I feel that HEAD and SHOULDERs are very reliable, but feel that it should be mentioned since a valid H&S can be a hint of a future strong move to the downside. Take a look at the NAZ/NDX charts. Looks like it may be possible tht they are now forming the right shoulder of an H&S. Of course if a LOCAL HIGHER HIGH is set, that would negate the pattern. Just watching to see if the H&S continues to develop - Im not predicting.

As mentioned previously, I am not that bearish, Im more inclined towards a trading range for the mid-term of 30 days(NDX 1600-1750=upside/SEPT LOWs=downside, also not saying that the NDX will get to the extremes of that range either).