Pakistani president faces fragile future
denverpost.com
By Trent Seibert
Denver Post Staff Writer
Friday, November 02, 2001 - ISLAMABAD - Pakistan's president faces new dissent at home and an apparent new threat from Osama bin Laden amid growing signs that support for his fragile alliance with the United States is fraying from within.
The head of the nation's top political party was arrested Thursday after his movement vowed to join Islamic groups in a Nov. 9 protest of President Pervez Musharraf's support for the U.S. campaign against Afghanistan.
And suspected terrorist leader bin Laden reportedly issued a statement saying Pakistan's government stands "under the banner of the cross" and Muslims should "rise up" against it.
Qatar's Al-Jazeera television station on Thursday broadcast excerpts from the letter saying that U.S. bombing of Afghanistan has become a war between religions.
Al-Jazeera, which has broadcast previous bin Laden statements, said the one-page handwritten letter appeared genuine.
Terrorism is increasing here. Radical religious political parties continue to call for Musharraf's ouster. Now some of Pakistan's academic and intellectual elite, who had supported the president's alliance with the United States, are starting to question him.
Even Musharraf seems more worried. On Thursday, the government said it would strongly enforce a ban on street protests and barred mosques from using loudspeakers except for Friday prayers.
"With the assaults on Afghanistan increasing, it's making it more difficult for President Musharraf to hold onto power," said Farhatulla Babar, a spokesman for the Pakistan People's Party, which opposes Musharraf but supports his alliance with the United States. "Each day it costs him popularity and stability. It's getting very bad for him."
A month ago, many were willing to wait out American bombing, hopeful of American economic aid and trusting in Musharraf. Now, with America's attacks intensifying, Afghan civilians being wounded or killed, and violence wracking parts of Pakistan, some - including Musharraf's own aides - are nervous.
"Many who are supportive are upset," said A.S. Abbasy, a senior official with Pakistan's Information Ministry. "We are strong, there is no danger, but there are many negative trends."
Over the past week in Pakistan, 16 people were massacred at a Christian church, a group of armed radicals blockaded a major highway, terrorists set off bombs and even anthrax hoaxes were reported.
Adding to the uncertainty, Pakistan's Supreme Court has ordered democratic elections for October. Musharraf has said he will comply. That means at least 30 other political parties will soon jockey for votes - and that Musharraf might have to change his relationship with the United States to stay in power.
"The regime of Gen. Musharraf is in a quandary," said Moonis Ahamar, a professor of international relations with the University of Karachi.
Many in Pakistan share tribal loyalties and a common language - Pashto - with their Afghan neighbors. In particular, the poor feel a kinship to Afghanistan and a lack of support from their own government, Ahamar said.
"These religious extremist groups in Pakistan have not emerged overnight," Ahamar said. "If the state had been providing education, health care, employment, and other basics to the deprived sections of society, the so-called hard-line clergy would not have gotten the opportunity to create a constituency of millions of young people and use them for their interests."
America is looking to Pakistan to provide intelligence about the Taliban and a potential base for attacks on Afghanistan. And as a predominantly Muslim country, Pakistan's support is symbolically important.
U.S. officials insist they don't fear for Musharraf.
"I believe that Gen. Musharraf's government is secure," White House chief of staff Andrew Card said in a recent NBC interview. "This is a coordinated effort. This really is good versus evil and the Pakistani government has joined the side of good."
But they may privately be questioning whether he can hold on. Published reports say the U.S. is preparing a special forces unit to dismantle Pakistan's nuclear weapons in case they are taken over by fundamentalists.
Many middle-of-the-road Pakistanis don't want their country to support a long U.S. bombing campaign, and certainly not through the holy month of Ramadan that begins in mid-November.
Seedra Malik said up until now she and her fellow students at Lahore University supported Musharraf. That changed as the bombing dragged on.
"I don't understand why he is becoming the American yes-man," she said. "There will be new leadership unless he quits this hand-holding with the United States."
Support will dwindle further if a great number of innocent Muslims are killed in Afghanistan, she said.
"A bloodbath there will mean a bloodbath here," she said.
Pakistanis are losing their patience, some say.
"Everyone here in Pakistan as well in the United States expected three or four days of bombing would take care of everything," said Farrukh Saleem, a business writer based in Islamabad. "They thought the Taliban would face defections all over the place."
But Musharraf has strengths as well. In addition to being president, he heads the armed forces, perhaps the country's most influential group. Not once in Pakistan's 53-year history has the army rebelled against its top general.
"The demonstrations will be there; the shouting will be there; the human cry will be there," said the People's Party's Babar. Musharraf's presidency may be in danger, "but he will be secure in his position" as military chief.
And the U.S. is helping: President Bush has waived economic sanctions imposed after Pakistan began nuclear testing and Musharraf seized power. Financial aid is flowing; the U.S., the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are allowing Pakistan to restructure much of its debt.
Pakistani business leaders are waiting for that aid, and hope it will help. In the meantime, some said, they understand Musharraf's dilemma.
"Think for a moment if Pakistan had not helped America in their attacks against the Taliban," said Shahid Hassan, an Islamabad merchant. "It would have resulted in a double attack on Pakistan. President Musharraf knew that Pakistan was in a tight corner and had no choice but to side with the Americans."
The Associated Press and Knight Ridder News Service contributed to this report. |
