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To: craig crawford who wrote (134078)	11/2/2001 9:11:36 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

at the present rate of descent they will be close to zero in a couple years. Master of hyperbole, too? Hmm. A twelve-year chart like that hardly supports your bullish view of commodities, unless you think they should go up just because they are down. One might have used the same argument for buying YHOO or AMZN at 50, 40, 30, 20... Base on the consensus economic outlook, you should be more concerned about breaking support and heading into a deflationary spiral. Your bull market won't come until we are well into a recovery and, according to most here, that's a long way away. Until then, you've got further downside risk. The early '90s recession officially ended April '91, but the CRB dropped for another year and a half after that. Are we closer to the beginning or the end of a recession? And when recovery comes, based on the last recovery, you might see the CRB rise by 20-25% over 3-4 years. Personally, I'd rather be in my stocks.