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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (10171)	11/2/2001 10:00:22 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

>> At least for now, the market wants to go up and is ignoring bad news. << Agree, but the markets did the exact same thing last year about this time when the news just started getting bad. Bad news was perceived as good news. To me this smells like just one more bear market rally. This market is not patient enough to wait another 9-12 months before things substantially improve. This unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. Post Sept 11th I have to believe there are more layoffs coming and a further erosion in consumer confidence. Given valuations I think we have to at least retest the recent lows if not make new lows before I'd consider going long. But if enough fund managers chase performance then you may be right. We could have one hell of a year end rally. But I'm not betting on it. Nor do I feel comfortable holding longs positions in this market with more terrorist incidents likely over the coming months. Anthrax is nothing so far. What if they start targeting the general public? To me this rally seems nothing more than fund managers chasing performance. They need to put money to work. They can't underperform the market when it's going up. It's ALL momentum driven here and that could change any day.