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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BirdDog who wrote (23246)	11/2/2001 2:58:42 PM
From: Berney	Respond to of 52237

Bird, No Problem!!! It looked to me that it was at the top of a really nice trading channel. The last time it had that volume spike (8/1), there was no follow through. As you noticed, it also created horizontal resistance. Seems to me that you're doing just fine. I just wanted to urge caution to any folks that I thought both it and the market were at short term highs. However, the strength in the market today totally surprised me. Berney

To: BirdDog who wrote (23246)	11/3/2001 2:28:20 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Respond to of 52237

Birdog Your analysis is not bad at all, however and most importantly you are ignoring the big picture. It is STILL a bear market for tech and even nontech. We are in the beginning stages of a global recession. And living in the aftermath of the most incredible bubble since 1929. Expand your charts to weekly or monthly to put your daily charting into perspective. You are correct that no supply lines can be drawn to provide a resistance level but I dont think that in and of itself should prompt a buy. We have seen the $NDX go from 1100 to 1450 in roughly thirty days. A rising tide lifts all boats and a falling one lowers them again. NTAP has gone from 6 to 16 in this time period almost a 300% increase. The way to make money is buy low and sell high not the opposite. It sounds simple but the vast majority of people try to buy high and sell higher. Usually they only achieve the buying high part and then do the selling at lower levels. Perhaps Im wrong and the nasdaq goes back to 5000 without stopping to rest but something tells me thats not going to happen. Learn to fade the majority and dont try to be a trend follower. You yourself said said that buying at 6.50 didnt make sense but in hindsight now it made perfect sense. As for using buy stops above resistance... That only works in commodities, and rarely at that. Market makers and hedge funds have charts too and they will push a stock through a key resistance point and short into the buy stops placed there by the uninitiated. I hope this has helped you and that my advice is welcome. I was like yourself, just starting out at TA couple of years ago. I spent alot of time looking at individual stocks when I should have been gauging overall market sentiment and tracking the indexes. When you see people panic selling NTAP and it looks like its going to 0 then load the boat, but until then sit back and watch. And if Cisco blows out the numbers on monday and people are panic buying go ahead short a small position and then give it a week or two. You might find that doing the "wrong" thing is often right. ATA