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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Second_Titan who wrote (10193)	11/2/2001 2:58:00 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Que, If the first 1/2 of winter is below normal, we should see NG prices back in the low 2's. Oil broke the $20.00 barrier today and most likely will be lower before higher. I still wish I would have stuck to my plan and loaded up when the OSX broke 60, but the risk reward for the OSX over the next 2 months is still on the side of the shorts. Looks like the OSX has broken down for now and is in a downward trend. A 50% retrace will be around OSX 74. I still feel we have a reasonable chance to retest the OSX lows before year end, and if we do I won't blow it this time. Jim

To: Second_Titan who wrote (10193)	11/2/2001 2:58:19 PM
From: Steeliejim	Respond to of 23153

Here's another from one of the really good ones on TSCM. It's really a pretty good resourse--except for Cramer IMO. Meisler is a techie through and through, but has a hell of track record on calling the overall down trend--and the setups for bounces. Jim Downside Momentum May Soon Seize the Nasdaq By Helene Meisler Special to TheStreet.com 11/02/2001 10:30 AM EST After a quick glance at the numbers after Thursday's close, I thought, "Wow, what a day!" I figured I was surely going to find many charts that looked significantly better than they had been recently. Yet when I finished posting my daily stock charts, I was surprised to find the positive list filled with the same few names I've been jotting down for weeks. But the real shocker was when I looked at the negative side of the ledger and saw many comments like "poor rally" next to technology names. After all, the Nasdaq has tacked on 80 points, or 5%, in the past two days. It didn't give back gains like the S&P 500 did Wednesday. Then I took a closer look at the statistics on the Nasdaq and saw why the charts were so bothersome. To begin with, the volume just isn't there. This week's volume is lower than last week's. It didn't increase on the downside or on the upside. I consider that churning, a market that's having wild swings without making significant progress. The next item that caught my eye was the advance/decline line on the Nasdaq. I usually don't put a lot of weight into this indicator on the Nasdaq, mostly because many penny stocks on this exchange can skew this statistic. However, I'm not about to ignore a reading of plus 846 Wednesday when the Nasdaq tacked on only 22 points. Compare that with a reading of only plus 587 Thursday when this index surged 56 points. This sort of action lends credence to my theory that Wednesday's action saw a lot of end-of-the-month markups. Often when I see the Nasdaq's A/D act so poorly on a relative basis, I turn to the upside/downside volume statistics to see if they tell a different story. In this case, they're not as bad as the A/D stats. Wednesday's and Thursday's readings were basically about the same, yet the average was up almost twice as much on Thursday vs. Wednesday. Not exactly what we want to see if this market is going to have momentum going forward. Besides the fact that the 30-day moving average of the A/D line will halt its rise after trading Friday, the final item that nags at me about this market is the oscillator. It hasn't fallen as deep as the New York Stock Exchange's oscillator has, but the way the numbers will work out, it's now difficult to imagine that a new high in the average will produce a new high in the oscillator. That would be the second time the average has made a new high in this rally phase and the oscillator has not. That can happen only so many times before the downside momentum takes hold.