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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (1259)	11/4/2001 7:59:16 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

It should be an interesting next 1, 2 to 3 days to see market direction. As noted in previous posts, the last few weeks/days have seen a very substantial rise - particularly in the semi-equips. The SOX has also been on a big up swing. I think over the next several weeks, the SOX could go much lower than 450 - something approaching the low values seen in late September, early October. The earnings estimate reductions for the semi-equips have shown no sign of letup to date - if anything, the percentage change is increasing to the downside. For the SOX to continue upward, I would think the earnings estimate reductions would have to stop and stabilize as a minimum. Keep in mind, both this years and next years earnings estimates for the total group are negative. Very crudely, this means that the group as a whole isn't going to make any money for the next 18 months - if the estimates are to be believed. It would seem the SOX has plenty of time to make another "downward run" in the next few weeks prior to continuing its upward course. Don