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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2877)	11/3/2001 11:27:06 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 99280

George I concur with your views on rising interest rates. Been asking about that for some time. Had I figured out a good way to do it I might have gotten caught myself on that surprise treasury move. Right now it appears if you are right, then going short interest rates or bonds (am I saying this correctly) sometime in December should be a good move, once the market turns back up, Greenspan will be done lowering rates. I actually think this next rate cut (if it comes at all, will be lower than expected, perhaps 1/4 point). That will leave him wiggle room for one more "gotcha" surprise cut later (on extremely oversold condition in Dec perhaps). Still trying to figure out what options one might try to bet on rising interest rates, and/or shorting some sort of bond index. M

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2877)	11/3/2001 3:28:09 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 99280

How do you think all this will effect munis? wr

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (2877)	11/3/2001 3:52:41 PM
From: pompsander	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

"If Zeev is right about a sharp equity drop soon, the 10s probably will back down to the 4.1% area again. But once the equity market begins a sustained advance I look for interest rates to commence a sharp rise all across the maturity spectrum. Loading up on long bonds at these levels makes no more sense then loading up on tech stocks when the NAZ was 5000. Would not be surprised to see the 10-year yield at 5.5% or more within 12 months." George, I totally agree with this outlook and logic.