SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: waverider who wrote (2908)11/3/2001 6:05:13 PM
From: Will Lyons  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99280
 
The real enemy is ignorance!

Consumers can not spend us back to prosperity

Investors will only bid up existing assets [bubbles] rather than create new ones [and jobs and prosperity] as long as final demand is insufficient to provide profitable opportunities

Leape in technology [steam engine, electricity, etc] could do it but we should not stand around and wait for something to come up

the private sector is only interested in profit and not in managing the total economy!

This leaves the government as the only locomotive left to pull the economy up

Govenment investment in infrastructure not only has a multiplying effect but also raises the marginal efficiency of investment

The huge expenditures for WW II and the Marshall Plan licked the great depression

HR 380 after the War set up the council of economic advisers and the employment act which was supposed to set the stage for the government to maintain the level of employment. The original bill was called the 'Full Employment Act ' but congress knocked the full out of it.

We should realize that the tug of war between the business of maximizing profits vs the public interest in prosperity and full employment is counterproductive. Business will profit even more in a prosperous economy and , therefore, should endorse government spending for infrastructure and programs for public benefit,



To: waverider who wrote (2908)11/4/2001 10:44:48 AM
From: WTSherman  Respond to of 99280
 
Wave, the Bauder article makes some superficial sense, but, really doesn't hold much water when you think about it. His comparison with WWII was particularly silly:

<Anyone old enough to remember World War II -- when consumption was rationed, people bought low-yielding victory bonds and tended victory gardens -- is told to shut up. What was patriotic then is unpatriotic now. Even though we are in a military war once again, the patriotic thing to do is to go out and load up on consumer goods, paying with a credit card.<

The situation today and situation during WWII are so different as to make it pointless to even try to compare them. For example, during WWII the two most significant problems which faced the gov't were the lack of capacity of the manufacturing economy and the deficits faced by the Federal gov't. It was understood from early on that WWII was going to require huge quantities of military goods and the raw materials to make them and that the gov't needed to have some way to finance all this production. This meant that industrial production had to be shifted from non-military goods(consumer goods) to military and military related goods. Hence, the need to dampen consumer demand and spending. There was little or no concern that employment would decline as a result of this. It was clearly understood that employment would increase dramatically, the biggest danger was that there would not be enough workers given the demands for military manpower. At the same time, for both psychological and financial reasons raising new debt was necessary to finance the whole thing, so lots of different schemes to borrow were launched.

Things are completely different today. The current "war" will not consume any significant amount of our industrial production. Significant, sustained declines in consumer spending will lead to increased unemployment, which will lead to further weakening of consumer spending, etc., etc. The "war" will not dramatically increase employment to absorb this, if it happens. Also, the gov't is not faced with deficits remotely on the scale of those in WWII(which ran several times the revenues of the U.S. gov't for most years of the war).

His points about consumer debt(he should have mentioned corporate debt, too, which is also at a very high level) are valid, but, largely irrelevant. We have built a house of cards that can only slowly be unwound. Given all the circumstances facing us today there isn't much choice, but, to try and reflate the economy. With the huge debt load out there a continued downward spiral is more dangerous than the dangers of creating a bubble again.

Once things appear to be stabilized I think that both fiscal and monetary policy will quickly move back towards more conservative attitudes. There may be an inflationary price to pay for this, but, right now not doing what is being done is to risk a very severe period of deflation and every downward economic activity.