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To: John Madarasz who wrote (19251)11/3/2001 5:37:16 PM
From: bcrafty  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
John, about H&S formations

Donald Sew had a few things to say about current H& S in this morning's update:

"However, do want to again express the issue of HEAD % SHOULDERS PATTERNs, since these patterns are starting to form on all of the major indices. Previously I mentioned the possible H&S on the NAZ/NDX, but now it may also be appearing on the DOW/SPX/OEX. Again, not that I put a lot of faith in H&S PATTERNs, since I have seen quite a few fail, I do want to mention it again since it may be forming on all of the major indices. The simplest way to have the H&S invalidated is for the indices to set local higher highs, but until that happens, and I ain't predicting, I'm not sure I would want to get overly bullish right now."



To: John Madarasz who wrote (19251)11/3/2001 7:57:48 PM
From: At_The_Ask  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
One thing about the small spec postions is that the number of long contracts is less than average if you exclude the post 9-11 numbers. The preceding COT was 10500 contracts proving that the small speces did in fact get cleaned out by panic buying gold after 9-11. However the current number of longs is less than average not showing a large amount of bullish fervor and perhaps less than average bullish sentiment.



To: John Madarasz who wrote (19251)11/5/2001 1:43:38 AM
From: Shack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
Good points John. I am not sure about how far the HUI falls here (if at all) but I don't believe we make that measured move on the H&S. As you say, the bull market in the miners which began last October makes me want to take all bearish chart patterns with a grain of salt.

Also I don't like an H&S which forms below a major top as we have here. I like them at the top of trends and this one came off a swing low in August.