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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lh56 who wrote (2914)	11/4/2001 12:02:03 AM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99280

You're right that when anyone needs ball bonders, KLIC is likely to be in the running for the order. However, bonders are short lead-time items which are typically bought only to meet current production needs. As a result, KLIC has historically had shorter and more vicious cycles than the front-end semi equip companies like AMAT NVLS KLAC etc. KLIC ignites later and burns out earlier, hence its low PE at cycle peaks. So, if anybody tells you that KLIC is a canary for a recovery in semi equip, I suggest you fart in their general direction. KLIC's business will recover after AMAT NVLS KLAC etc. No danger of any of that happening before late 2002, IMO. Disclosure: short KLIC at 17.10, and would add at 19 in the unlikely event it got there. P.S. Zeev, please comment on this analysis... I value your opinions on this sector.