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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goldberry who wrote (1758)	11/3/2001 9:24:20 PM
From: bill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Hi Graham, Glad to for what it is worth. Keep in mind that technicals assume functioning in a steady environment. Insert an influential event (sept. 11, for example; or OPEC not getting agreement, etc.) and the trend will be broken. At the moment: PWI.UN has broken below 20/40/200 day MA's. That's very bearish. Also, there has been a small gap down. That means sellers are willing to take less than the previous market day. Also bearish. However, there looks to be support about 6.40-6.50. One good thing is that volume is down so the fall is not caused by a massive desire to get out. OBV is down but not significantly. Like SHN. I think what is happening is that while there are sellers, a lot of people are holding on for the distribution from the trust plus the fact that there's a general sense shortages in NG will show up again. The MACD has been rising but from below the zero line, therefore, its not very convincing. It now looks like it will cross over negatively. Counterbalancing that is that the short term schostasic is seriously oversold. That could see a bump up in price but I'd expect it to be short lived. Like most of the owners of the stock (according to the OBV) I'm going to hang on for the distribution (Dec. will be 17 cents)and, if the price falls toward the 6.50 support will buy more shares. I don't own and haven't followed AVN so I don't know what caused the huge gap up in May. Since the gap up, the trend has been steadily down and, if you believe in trends, then unless something substantial happens you coul expect to see the price erode until the gap is closed.If that were to happenk, I'd be a buyer. The price trendline is below the MA for 20/40 but still above the 200 day. There may be some support there. There appears to be price support at 7.50 but I'm not convinced. The MACD is neutral and the OBV while trending down is doing so very slightly. Again, there are sellers out there but there's no rush to get out. I'd think for the same reasons as SHN and PWI. If you sell, what do you do with the money. Put it in an account at .5% or into a bond at 1.8%. One could sell and wait on the sidelines. There's nothing wrong with cash at times like this. However, there are powerful exernals right now. Deep recession is being talked about. Then cash is king. War in Afghanistan. May depress prices of NG and Oil but may also drive them up. If the economy finds its feet, we'll look back and say why didn't I buy? Still, if I was nervous about these two, I'd add more PIF.UN, which I may do. It's up fifty cents since I took my first position and the chart is very good. So are the fundamentals.