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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (55063)	11/4/2001 12:12:31 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, That was a great post. Thanks also for the link to those other great posts you made. I am not sure if I can add anything of value to those posts, but let me mention a few thoughts. I think investing is a game where the novice often gets his head handed to him (applies to women as well, but I think they tend to be more cautious, and therefore are less at risk). This was especially true during the last 18 months. I wish I could say that I sidestepped that, but I did not. I was doing great until October of last year, but then the telecom thing hit me. I made the big mistake of actually believing that some of those "experts" actually knew what they were talking about. Then I listened to other "experts" who were strongly advising to buy on the way down. Those long the technology market for the last 18 months have been unlucky to have been exposed to the biggest market crash since 1929 (the Nasdaq decline from the peak blows away the market crash in the early 70's). I did very well in prior years, but the decline in my portfolio for the past year has been most unpleasant. Thanks again for sharing your insights here. I remain very excited about technology, and I think I always will be. Even though I got hit pretty good in the last year, I can focus on the ways in which technology is improving all of our lives, and also on the opportunities in technology going forward. Plus I have new money to invest each week. The game is far from over, and I think this sharing of ideas here is really something of value. For example, your posts have benefited me and I think countless others as well. I totally agree with your comments on human behavior and how we are hardwired from evolution in a way that impedes our success at investing. If this thread represented just a cross section of what the professionals are thinking then it would be mostly a contrary indicator. This thread, however, is mostly a collection of people who have learned to go against the heard. Also, we have, and should, welcome contrary points of view. I am reminded of an article about the history of networking that I mentioned here before. The article pointed out how the great progress in human civilization over time was related to the amount of networking people have been engaged in. At one point it took us about 300,000 years to go from the invention of the "hand axe", to the invention of the axe with an attached wooden handle. The inventions have been coming faster and faster ever since. I think the internet is the most incredible networking tool so far, and I think we will be amazed at some point, looking back, at how much technological progress was on the horizon at this point. At some point I think the communications area of technology will be the place to be again. AMAT will also benefit of course from this trend. Lastly, let me mention that I just saw the new AMAT commercial on television. It shows children using several electronic devices, and points out that AMAT is involved with the manufacture of each one. I am not sure exactly how this commercial will help the stock, but it can't hurt any for AMAT to become recognized for what this company provides to our world. Regards, John