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Gold/Mining/Energy : Canadian REITS, Trusts & Dividend Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goldberry who wrote (1761)	11/4/2001 1:55:07 PM
From: bill	Respond to of 11633

Thanks. I wondered what that was all about. I'm afraid I don't know AVN. My focus is elsewhere right now. Have you tried doing multiple charts for the trusts? If PWI and AVN are nearly identical, then it may be that the other OG trusts are also following the same patttern. A general downturn in the area with no indication of any one of them being in an individual decline. The trend might even show a direct relationship to the OG percentage holding. Be interesting if the charts would show that close a relationship between OG % and price trend. When I get a chance, I'll go back to the AVN chart and run it from the time it becomes a trust. Although I like to look at the charts for possible entry and exit points and trends, I also look to fundamentals for events that will change trends. I know some people just trade the charts but I'll take any information I can get to plug in. (e.g. I've a fairly decent holding in ABZ. We've all been waiting for confirmation of financing for the completion of the diamond mine. The news of financing and the effect on the chart are quite obvious. I guess one could look at the chart without the information and say the price broke through 17.00 so it's time to buy and not worry about the external cause. Or one could say they've got the financing and buy and not worry about the price volume relationship. But, being terribly conservative (a Montgomery rather than a Patton), I like to have as much info as possible.) SHN is a case in point, I think. The experience of the other trusts indicated (indicates) a pullback at least to 13.40 and perhaps somewhat lower. The price kept moving up. That meant something that wasn't known (to me at least) was affecting the price. Turns out it was a buy recommendation. Now, these effects usually run about three days. The question for me is will 14.57 ( a double top) indicate the final point of the run up and will the stock now revert back to what we'd normally expect to see with an issue of more shares at 13.40? Do you think there will be a pull back? In spite of a couple of columnists in the G&M and the FP, I don't think we've hit bottom yet. There hasn't been capitulation. If there were, we wouldn't see people rushing back into Techs on the first indication that the situation might not be as disasterous as first thought. If that is right, then the move up has been a bear trap. Do you see more downward movement for PWI (6.50 perhaps_) and AVN?

To: Goldberry who wrote (1761)	11/4/2001 2:35:04 PM
From: bill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11633

Graham has done it now. He's got me thinking about ratios of distribution and stock price. I looked at the chart for AVN and saw that since it became a trust it has dropped 5.00. 12.55-7.55. Wicked for anyone doing a buy and hold in a bear market. This raised a question and I wonder if Graham or anyone else could explain, answer the following question: what is the necessary relationship between distribution and price of a trust? Many blue chip companies are now paying less than 2% dividend. Trust companies are paying far higher than that and yet the price falls as the distribution falls. I assume the difference between the blue chip and the trusts re dividend/distribution is risk. However, that doesn't seem to hold up much in the face of BBD.A. That aside, does anyone have some information on what the relationship of distribution to price of a trust is required for buyers to support a price? If a trust is paying 30% and the distribution is cut to 20% what would the expected drop in price of the stock be? 1/3? Does the ratio hold? Is this the case if the other trusts keep their distribution ratio because holders of the trust that is dropping flee to higher paying trusts? If so, what happens if all the trusts are cutting the size of their distributions? Does that restrain sellers because there is no safe haven? Is that what we are seeing now with similar patterns in price reduction for various OG trusts? Lots of questions but my major one is about the ratio. If the distribution drops, is the price drop of the trust predictable because an expected ratio has to be maintained? Thanks in advance for anyone willing to explain this.