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To: flint who wrote (6)	11/4/2001 1:28:07 PM
From: flint	Respond to of 9

mhirschey - Yahoo LVLT - MSFT buying LVLT Again this is coming from a Finance Professor at Kansas University. He also claims to have performed services for LVLT (will get to that later). messages.yahoo.com "my 5-10% guess as to the odds Microsoft will soon announce that it has taken a 10% position in the common stock of Level 3 and designated Level 3 as its prime service provider." Re: Doug Sherrets predicted L3 $18 in Se by: mhirschey (50/M/Lawrence, KS) 05/12/01 03:44 pm Msg: 71388 of 131919 Doug Sherrets, Gee, since you'll only post once, there is no need to respond in the hope of some enlightenment. Thus, I'll only muss: 1. How much did you make on your hypothetical Level 3 price predictions? I presume your answer is nothing, which is therefore the real value of those hypothetical predictions. 2. There is not a 31% chance of Level 3 going bankrupt. It's not 0%, and it's not 100%, but nobody, not even a wise 16 year old has a sufficiently tested bankruptcy model to make such a precise prediction as 31%. My guess is 1-2%, which is somewhat below my 5-10% guess as to the odds Microsoft will soon announce that it has taken a 10% position in the common stock of Level 3 and designated Level 3 as its prime service provider. 3. I wish I was 16 again and knew 50% of what I know now, or 31% of what I thought I knew then. Best wishes, Mark Hirschey