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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (3603)	11/4/2001 1:03:45 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Respond to of 36161

Jim, IMHO -- Canadian Oil Sands trust is expensive like a bastard ... they've capped their upside with an extensive hedging program to finance capex. They've also swallowed Athabasca Oil Sands Trust in Q3 which will make them the biggest trust in Canada, but I'm not so sure how that'll play out in this bear market. They are the only trust that doesn't deplete reserves to pay out a dividend ... which would make it an ok investment long-term ... but keeping in mind that it is trading very close to it's 52 week high would make this conservative dividend investment vehicle a crap shoot -- short-term. I firmly believe there are better ways at playing the Alberta patch. FWIW - I don't like trusts -- I tend to invest cyclically in this sector and the old buy and hold approach for a dividend is certainly not my style. Regards Frank P.

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (3603)	11/4/2001 5:46:40 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 36161

the smallpox immunization is NOT considerd to impart lifelong immunity, IMO.

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (3603)	11/4/2001 5:49:31 PM
From: jim black	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Frank, the date 1972 is THE problem with smallpox. Immunization lasts only 10 years. In essence everyone now alive, those before 1972 being vaccinated, and all others since...wide open to infection. There will be 300 million doses for public program before end of year. I trust my source. Plague is an unaddressed issue, especially if if released in closed space like an airport terminal, unexposed to sunlight's strong UV light, also very highly contagious like flu once infecting the lungs. There are other bugs unknown except to our imaginations, brewed in an ex-Soviet lab, sold by an expatriate trying to feed his family from a collapsed Soviet puppet state. We shall see. One thing I feel with certainty...we must take all of this much more seriously than most Americans imagine. Thanks for your opinion on the COS trust. Jim Black