Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9490)	11/4/2001 2:00:25 PM
From: techanalyst1	Respond to of 57684

Bill... I'm not bearish. I think that the liquidity and stimulus we're getting are going to be quite supportive of stocks and the economy.... especially now that long term rates are coming down. But I'm just not really ultra bullish either. As you know, I've been saying, "trading range" or uptrend but not gangbusters like 1998 for a while. I'm a buyer of stocks.... on pull backs. Interest rates coming down, tax stimulus, lower oil, etc are there because the econ is sucking wind. I have a hard time believing that we're going to get the DEMAND that we had post 1998 and therefore, we won't see the earnings and growth rates that we had then. So... I don't think we're going back up with the speed we had. OTOH: I don't see that we're going to see the bear resume either due to the stimulus we're getting. Only thing that would improve the situation is if the whole world would be as supportive as we are and we could wipe out some of the debt that these telcos have on their books. It's not just bad for that sector. They buy stuff from other companies... crm, supply chain management software, cell phones, spend on hotels, car rentals, air travel, etc. They probably trickled down affecting other companies who trickled down themselves. I'm so happy to finally see some real stimulus coming other than short term rate cuts. I think the bear is dead and don't necessarily think that we MUST test the lows. Looking back at what's happened in the past after sharp moves, makes me even more cautious in saying we can change from bear to bull without a period of basing, even though I must admit the season is on our side as is the fed. TA

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (9490)	11/4/2001 7:12:27 PM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

I agree with you about Quest. Earlier this year they made bullish statements about how they were going to aggressively pursue VoIP. Then they came out recently talking about cutting CapEx. The only thing I can figure that made people more bullish is that INTC gave a webcast at the same time which reviewed all industries including optical. They pointed out in the presentation that broadband usage over the last 2 years is much higher than forecasts. This means that regardless of what carriers say they are going to have to face the music and do something about demand. IMHO, we did not have the enormous optical overbuilding that is popularly believed - this will also help force spending. I remember hearing reports months ago pointing out that only the DC-Manhattan corridor was clearly overbuilt. There is some argument about the Manhattan-Hollywood corridor but nothing else was overbuilt. The metro market was hardly touched. What happened was that the FED tight money policy in early 2000 ground the whole build out to a halt. Now the availability of money is not the problem. And demand is there. Unfortunately, the tight money bloodbath we went through killed a lot of the competition and left survivors with lots of debt.