To: cnyndwllr who wrote (10246 ) 11/5/2001 1:10:36 AM From: The Ox Respond to of 23153 Dollar Advances on Optimism Fed Rate Cuts to Spur U.S. Economy By Kanako Chiba and Mari Murayama Tokyo, Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar strengthened against the euro on expectations the Federal Reserve will tomorrow lower interest rates for a tenth time this year, fueling optimism the U.S. economy will rebound faster than Japan's or Europe's. ``Compared with slow-moving Europe and non-moving Japan, the Fed is the only central bank which has the space and ability to act,'' said Tadatoshi Taso, a foreign exchange manager at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. ``That will help the dollar.'' The U.S. currency gained on the likelihood of the Fed trimming the target rate for overnight loans by a half-point to a four-decade low of 2 percent at a policy meeting tomorrow. Lower interest rates may bolster the dollar by boosting expectations the U.S. will pull out of its slump first, analysts said. The dollar rose to 89.82 U.S. cents per euro from 90.27 late Friday in New York. Against the yen, it was little changed at 121.82 yen, from 121.73. The dollar has rebounded 3.8 percent against the euro from a six-month low of 93.31 on Sept. 17, and 4.9 percent against the yen since reaching a seven-month low of 115.83 on Sept. 20, as the Fed cut its benchmark lending rate to a 39-year low of 2.5 percent. Compared with the Fed's nine rate cuts this year, the European Central Bank has sliced its borrowing costs three times, or 1 percentage point, to 3.75 percent. The Bank of Japan pared its benchmark rate to close to zero in March and BOJ governor Masaru Hayami has said there's little more he can do to pull the economy out of recession. Nineteen of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the European Central Bank will lower interest rates on Thursday by a quarter point, to 3.5 percent, in a bid to avert recession. More Freedom European politicians have criticized the region's central bank in recent weeks for not reducing borrowing costs more to spur growth. German and Italian business confidence had the biggest drop in decades in September while European manufacturing shrank for a seventh month in October. Inflation in the region fell for the fourth month in September, dropping 2.5 percent, giving the central bank more freedom to reduce rates, analysts said. Some analysts say a European rate reduction is less likely after ECB council member Ernst Welteke reportedly said previous interest-rate reductions by the ECB must be allowed to take effect before the bank cuts them again. ``We have already cut rates by 100 basis points this year,'' Welteke said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper. ``Lower interest rates take time to manifest their effects. There is no such thing as rapid effects on the economy from interest rate cuts.'' Question Mark ``Welteke's comment has given a question mark on the ECB's willingness to lower rates this week,'' said Takashi Nakata, a manager of spot FX proprietary trading at BNP Paribas SA. ``Should the bank not lower rates, that will disappoint the market and push the euro down.'' The dollar was also helped after German authorities said tests showed the presence of anthrax spores in two parcels and a letter, the first reported cases of anthrax in Germany. ``The report of anthrax in Germany will weaken the euro,'' as the news fueled concern biological terrorism is spreading to Europe, said Kosuke Hanao, head of forex sales at the Royal Bank of Scotland. The euro was also lower after the Financial Times said Italy may have used the derivatives market to help it disguise the size of its budget deficit when it entered the single European Currency, traders said. Any further rise in the dollar may be limited as declining consumer spending and rising unemployment added to evidence the U.S. economy is shrinking. ``A number of bad economic reports last week confirmed the worsening state of the U.S. economy,'' said Taso. ``We are not in a situation to buy the U.S. currency aggressively.'' The government Friday said the U.S. jobless rate rose to a five-year high of 5.4 percent last month, as the economy shed 415,000 non-farm jobs, the most since May 1980. In other trading, the dollar rose to 1.6372 Swiss francs from 1.6296 in New York. The British pound fell to $1.4560 from $1.4628.