Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StanX Long who wrote (55076)	11/5/2001 4:50:39 AM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

From another thread. Message 16607296 belated response to your post "4-7":).(this post is just arguing that your view is highly justified) I want just to do a bit of reducing to all arguments to a few words. The key to all bull/bear arguments is this,is this a secular bear market or not--it is that simple. For those who dismiss a secular bear market flippantly by saying look at 82,are those that need a wake-up call the most because that argument is so wrong it exposes that they actually don't know what they are talking about. Memorize this those who think 1982 proves this present time not to be a real threat of a secular bear market. Here are the DOW monthly quotes of our last secular bear market--it ONLY lasted 16 years,and 1982 was the END POINT of that secular bear market that had ONLY gone basically no where in 16years(just chopped and flopped),and only swing traders during that time made money.http://chart.yahoo.com/t?a=01&b=01&c=66&d=12&e=03&f=82&g=m&s... and our other secular bear market in the 20th century lasted ONLY 25years(but buying and holding in 1939 would have been a great move--10 years into the secular bear--also if you if you bought the bottom in june 32,you were king midas by the 50s--http://chart.yahoo.com/t?a=10&b=01&c=29&d=11&e=05&f=33&g=m&s...). So are we in a secular bear market? my reply recent history gives NO reason to say we are not in secular bear market. John Bollinger,i respect John Bollinger,says so--he is calling for another 10 years minimum. So in simple words--secular or simple brief cyclic bear market? History says,no reason to say no--so it is a real threat and it may well be a secular bear. So what is the key,sustained consumer spending (and not economic policy induced up blips that then fade) into the future will prevent a secular bear market. It is that simple. Will we avoid a secular bear? Doubt it.Max p.s. it was roughly 28 months from the '29Bubble collapse to it's lowest point after--hmmm--that would be July 2002--food for thought--one problem,our Bubble is significantly bigger than one in '29--