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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: invinciblewimp who wrote (79583)	11/5/2001 2:21:46 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

invinciblewimp> TranSwitch today, who else tomorrow? .. 10+ more arrangements in the next 2 years like the TranSwitch deal. As most Rambus longs learned from earlier rants (drip,drip, drip) about companies signing up with rambus technology, but then producing little or nothing, there is still a long road ahead.

To: invinciblewimp who wrote (79583)	11/5/2001 11:00:55 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi invinciblewimp; Re: "Good work collecting all those stats, Bilow. The value proposition RaSer provides will likely attract, I'm guessing (and I'm sure you'll archive this post), 10+ more arrangements in the next 2 years like the TranSwitch deal." Transwitch has only 1/40th the sales of just one DRAM maker, Micron. Even 10+ more arrangements in the next 2 years is small compared to getting Micron to sign. That's why Rambus is a legal play, not a technology play. Re: "Things take time, my friend, take a look at the engineering miracle known as DDR, for example. Your group has been saying DDR is here for the last five years, and it has yet to arrive in any meaningful quantities." Yes, things do take time. Intel was late to the DDR party because they wasted time in RDRAM land. AMD was early because they didn't. And since Intel is the monopoly, what do you expect? Of course DDR is delayed (as far as majority memory type). The same thing was true of PC133 before Intel supported that as well. But very soon Intel will support DDR. Re: "My guess is (archive this, too) that Rambus will make more on their RaSer income than they will on SDRAM in two years." I don't archive stuff, I just do thread searches. But if Rambus continues losing royalty lawsuits like they have already, then your prediction will definitely be accurate. Re: "That's a big wild guess, but it sounds good." There you go, in one sentence you've fully described the Rambus situation. Eventually Wall Street figured it out. I guess you haven't yet. Re: "And since you just write stuff that sounds good to you, I figured I'd throw one out, too." I've been on SI for over 4 years, and have actively posted to the Rambus thread for well over 2. I've got running bets with various people, but they were wrong and they're all gone now. Where's Tinkershaw, Mathemagician, The Prophet? They all took their lumps and disappeared. You will too. Re: "Micron is a heckuva an example to really prove your point about TranSwitch's troubles. Yeah, okay, Micron is the bastion of hope in this industry. Why don't you show me their numbers? What a standout. Micron is an embarassment to the tech community, both in their crybaby attitude and lowbrow business ethics." My example with Micron was to demonstrate how little Transwitch's revenues were. The reason Rambus went after the memory makers for royalties was the same reason Jesse James went after the banks for money. Rambus failed, and so now they're going after the 7-11s, fast food joints and convenience stores, BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! And I love the comparison to Micron's business ethics. Micron wasn't the company that got convicted of fraud. Re: "Who's to say Cisco won't license RaSer? I personally don't think they will, but who's to say they haven't?" Hey, it's perfectly possible that Cisco would license RaSer. Why wouldn't they? And if they did, it would be good news for Rambus. But Transwitch? Re: "And why do you think the stock would rally on this news? The analysts in the world are clueless about RaSer so far." Actually, the "analysts in the world" are no longer clueless about Rambus' business ethics. Why should they trust anything Rambus says? Rambus lied to the memory industry when they repeatedly let it be known that they had no SDRAM (and DDR) patents. When Rambus went back on their word and asked the memory industry for SDRAM royalties, they lied to the analysts (and stockholders) about (a) who invented the technology, (b) what their chances in court were, and (c) what the nature of their contracts with the memory makers who signed were. Re: "As for the reason of the pick up in the demand of the 850, it's due to the over-all transition to the P4 from P3, and a combination of the numbers of chipsets people want. Wish it were more because of the acceptance of RDRAM, but I wouldn't go that far... yet." It must be tough to walk around deluded all the time. -- Carl P.S. Thanks for responding! It's been getting dull around here.

To: invinciblewimp who wrote (79583)	11/5/2001 11:51:59 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 93625

Hi invinciblewimp; Re TXCC. I finally got around to reading The Motley Fool, and it turns out that I misread Transwitch's recent results. I thought they were down 67% over the past year, but it turns out that their sales were down 67% from the prior quarter. They're revenues are down close to 90% from the same quarter in 2000. Their most recent quarter was only $4.5 million: biz.yahoo.com A year of that revenue would only be $18 million. Even in the unlikely event that Rambus got 3% royalties on all their product in all their product lines that would only amount to $540,000 per year, or $0.005 per share *revenue* for Rambus. -- Carl P.S. Thanks to BusstopBriggs on the TMF Rambus thread: boards.fool.com