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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (93582)	11/5/2001 11:47:06 PM
From: Night Writer	Respond to of 97611

El, My other stock purchases haven't been setting the world on fire either. For example, I have NAT that is paying a $.55 dividend this quarter, and will pay a minimum $1.35 annual dividend. It was $20 and is now $13. I should have bought CDs. <G> NW

To: Elwood P. Dowd who wrote (93582)	11/6/2001 9:04:27 AM
From: PCSS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

from G-S Research Report this morning: HP`s Fundamentals Remain Weak But Channel Filling May Help Q4 Results Hewlett-Packard will report earnings after the close on Wednesday, November 15, with a 4:30 PM ET conference call. Fundamentals remain weak, but the combination of channel filling of new XP consumer PCs, redesigned low-cost inkjets, lowered expectation, and less currency impact could enable HP to report better than our currently published $9.7B in revenue (versus $10.1B in the July quarter), with little or no impact on our $0.11 EPS forecast (versus $0.11 in the July quarter). Exiting the July quarter, HP indicated that it hoped to achieve sequentially flat-to-up revenues although, since then, the weaker economic environment and the events of Sept. 11 have led to numerous estimate changes around the Street, including a very wide revenue and earnings range. At this point, consensus revenues and earnings are $9.9B and $0.08 respectively. THE CONSUMER BUSINESS REMAINS WEAK BUT CHANNEL FILLING OF NEW PRODUCTS COULD HELP HP'S NUMBERS. Underlying demand for consumer PCs and inkjets remains weak. While HP was the first to see slowing in both its inkjet hardware and consumables business, recent results from Lexmark and Canon further confirm the weakness of this market. Notwithstanding, channel filling of new XP consumer PCs and HP's newly redesigned low-cost inkjet and consumables could enable HP to show better growth than we are currently modeling despite slow end-user demand. XP was available to PC vendors to pre-load in late September, giving HP and its distribution a full month to fill channels. THERE IS ALSO NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT LASER PRINTERS SHOWED ANY IMPROVEMENTS. Again, HP was the first to report slowing on both the laser printer and consumables side, followed by Lexmark and Canon. While difficult to triangulate with any precision, Canon's recent forecast for Q4 laser printer business declines of around 30% has negative indirect implications for HP's laser printer business as a result of HP's relationship with Canon, which supplies HP with laser engines and cartridges for its entire laser printer line. WEAK ENTERPRISE TRENDS SUGGEST ANOTHER QUARTER OF LOSSES FOR HP'S COMPUTER BUSINESS. With the price war in both commercial desktops and PC servers, and reduced demand for Unix servers, we expect HP's Computer Business to once again lose money. HP has seen increasing losses in this group, with its total year-to-date loss amounting to $325M. We expect at least another $100M loss in Q4, suggesting that despite HP's slowing imaging business, imaging should once again provide over 100% of profits in the quarter. EXPENSE REDUCTION ENABLES HP TO GROW EARNINGS DESPITE LACKLUSTER REVENUES. Even if HP reports Q4 revenue higher than our currently printed $9.7B, our forward revenue forecast may not change much. We are already at an above- normal 7% sequential growth rate for Q1, the result of our lowered Q4 forecast post September 11. Despite revenue uncertainties, we think HP has probably seen its operating margin trough in the 2-3% area for the last several quarters because of heavy cost cutting, process reengineering and layoffs. Our current forecasts for FY'02 are for EPS growth of 11% on revenue growth of 0.5%. ..............................Stk..........Latest..........52 Week..........Mkt Cap..........YTD Pr..........Cur ..............................Rtg..........Close...........Range................(mm)..........Change..........Yield Hewlett-Packard........NR..........16.89..........48-14..............32749.7..........-46%..........1.9% --------------Earnings Per Share--------------- HWP (US$)..........Jan..........Apr..........Jul..........Oct..........FY..........CY .....2002 FY.....................................................................0.85......0.95 .....2001 FY.........0.37A.......0.18A.......0.11A.......0.11.......0.77.......0.60 .....2000 FY(A).......0.40........0.43........0.49........0.41.......1.73.......1.70