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To: techreports who wrote (9440)	11/6/2001 11:08:09 AM
From: Crystal ball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10934

NTAP: from $6 to $17 (Who forgot to buy LOW?) to $25 (USB WARBURG recently) to $50, to $100, to $152 high. It will happen, those of you that followed my lead and doubled down are already ahead. As the economy recovers, and this will be the worse quarter no doubt about it, the market will recover 6 months to 9 months ahead of the economy and THAT MEANS NOW. As NTAP doubles or triples its earnings (BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE) the P/E ratios will be half to a third of what they are now, same with the growth, EPS GROWTH. Tonight we will get a better look at the managements' projections "LOOKING FORWARD" i.e. visibility, but remember the rule of thumb: the markets recover in anticipation and well ahead of the economy. Greenspan finally will lower rates to OPEN CARRY below 2 year treasury rates which will finally allow for an expansion of liquidity (growth of money supply) as banks can buy treasuries to cover their federal reserve loan to reserve ratios, and then borrow the money out on loans, cheaper, and get the money coming back as deposits, increasing the money supply by the so called multiplier effect. Today my past predictions in this regard finally come true as we will see starting at the close of business today. IMHO NTAP is still low, still a strong buy. Storage is the lifeblood of the new economy, much needed to win the war, and to beat the recession and pull us into the future recovery. I am, Truly your$, -Crystal Ball

To: techreports who wrote (9440)	11/6/2001 4:51:21 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10934

re: buying at 17 wouldn't be a terrible mistake I suppose, in an attempt to be charitable and not get flamed, I could say that buying at 17 wouldn't be as bad a mistake as a lot of other mistakes I've seen in the last 2 years. People never learn. Never. Even after seeing this innumerable times, I am amazed at my fellow investor's unwillingness to learn from experience. How many times do you need to buy and hold a stock at an unsustainable valuation, before you stop saying "Gorillas are always undervalued, I'll hold till a substitution threat and ignore any other warning signs, it doesn't matter what price I bought at, because it's going to the moon"? How many times do you need to watch a stock go from 152 to 6? I'll say again, what I've been saying since 1995, (before I bought my first stock) : Valuation matters. Always. All sectors, all stocks, in bear markets and bull markets. Gorillas and UnGorillas. Especially Gorillas, when a Bubble is partially deflated. Example: The NTAP 04C15s I recently bought, with the stock between 6.09 and 9.7, cost (average) $2.84. At today's close, with the stock at 17.02, the lowest ask is $9.40 for those options. Let's make some fairly realistic assumptions, and guess where the stock will be, in January 2004 (when these LEAPs expire, and I convert them to stock for a LT hold, or sell them): Today, the consensus EPS for the FY ending 4/03 is $0.20 (down from $0.37 90 days ago). Let's assume in calendar year 2003, they actually make $0.40. Let's assume the recession is over by January 2004 (we need this assumption, to believe NTAP will earn $0.40 in CY03). Let's not assume a re-inflation of the Bubble, but just a return to normal (= pre-1999, perhaps pre-1995) valuation levels. The LT expected EPS growth rate is 30%/Y. What PE will NTAP have? Let's be generous, very generous, and say the stock gets a PE (using trailing earnings) of 50. Then, the stock price at expiration is: $0.40 X 50 = 20. Notice, I am making assumptions much more bullish than the current consensus. My return: 20 (stock price at expiration) - 15 (strike price) = $5 = value of option at expiration. Then: $5 - $2.84 = $2.16 = my profit. Your return: $5 - 9.40 = -$4.40 = your non-profit. Now, you can play around with these numbers some, make other assumptions, use stock rather than options, but it doesn't really change the conclusion. It's a robust conclusion; it holds true under various conditions and assumptions. The conclusion is: valuation matters.