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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (82375)	11/6/2001 2:12:16 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99985

Demographic Analysis: I don't have access to those prior posts, although I remember making a number of them. Perhaps there's a misunderstanding based on Dent's own prognistications vs my own vis a vis the stock market. My own analysis remains essentially the same: A weakening demographic background into 2002-2003 after what I thought would be a mildly favorable backdrop before that. The system isn't that precise, so the earlier than expected Market weakness may or may not mean that modification of the analysis is required. Some moderate positive influence in 2004 and part of 2005, with the final high likely in 2005, then the long negative cycle takes firm hold. Keep in mind that, even if everything follows that general scenario, economic cycles still have important influence over intermediate term trends. Right now, the economic cycle is very favorable, even though the demographic backrop is weakening. It's inconceivable that I would have seen a major long-term high in the late years of this decade. I have a data sheet in front of me that I prepared in Sept '99. It shows huge negative numbers from demographic influences for the years 2006 and 2007, with no really strong demographic influences through 2016.