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To: MSI who wrote (9536)	11/6/2001 2:51:41 AM
From: schrodingers_cat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

I don't deny that broadband is going to produce a fair bit of growth, in fact I think it is the best story in tech right now. However, consider that service providers have to charge $20 / month to provide dial-up internet. Broadband internet is available for a little more than twice as much. So the revenue stream from the broadband internet will only be a little more than twice as big as the revenue stream from the dial-up internet. So the roll-out of the internet is a little less than half done, based on the additional costs of broadband services over dial-up. Of course the number of bits moved will continue to soar, but most of the additional capacity will come from technology advances rather than spending increases. You also have to consider that the initial roll-out of the net produced an enormous investment in dot.coms and e-business. I think the arrival of broadband is unlikely to produce a repeat of that. The dial-up internet was fundamentally new technology, whereas broadband is really just more of the same. I think that you are also optimistic with your implied estimates for 100% broadband penetration. Not everybody will be able to afford broadband, and not everyone will want it. Other technologies, such as broadcast cable and satellite can distribute HDTV programming, and personal video recorder type capability can give people some flexibility in when they watch the shows. These will provide a cheaper alternative to broadband internet for people who don't want interactivity. You have to remember that a great deal of money has also been invested in the internet already. I don't know how much has been invested in the dial-up net over the past 5 years but $100bn to $1trn sounds like a reasonable range.