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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StanX Long who wrote (55108)	11/6/2001 1:48:40 AM
From: StanX Long	Respond to of 70976

I put this together earlier today, trying to make sence of CSCO report. These are from several threads. This could be the pump and dump time. * 17:32 ET Cisco Systems (CSCO) 17.90 +0.64: -- Update -- Cisco guides Q2 revenues higher ; expects Q2 (Jan) revenues to be flat to up in the low single digits sequentially. If you assume this is 0-5% growth, that would be a range of $4.45-4.67 bln vs the current Multex consensus of $4.3 bln. * 17:50 ET Cisco Systems (CSCO) 17.90 +0.64: -- Update -- Using the company's assumptions, we can put together a Q2 model as follows: revenues up 2.5% (company: flat-low single digits), gross margins of 54% (company: mid-50s), operating expenses down 1% (company: flat to slightly down), other income flat (company: flat), tax rate steady at 28% (company: 28%), share count +70 mln (company: +60-80 mln). Using those assumptions, Briefing.com comes up with a Jan qtr EPS estimate of $0.05 vs the current consensus of $0.03. 18:09 ET Cisco Systems (CSCO) 17.90 +0.64: -- Update -- ... clarifies that its forecasting visibility for current qtr is not as good as it was for Q1... CSCO +0.86 at 18.76 _____________________________ Chambers now guiding rev growth flat to single digit at best, also of note half of the reported earnings was due to interest and "other" income not related to business sales. __________________________________ Jim, do you disagree then that an essential element for the end of a bear market is a double bottom? If I recall correctly, that's a pretty fair technical rule. If we keep going up here, it will only lead to a larger drop in the future. Also, remember that many of the MM's are the same people who are pumping the stocks with those timely "upgrades" to keep things moving in the correct direction while they prepare for the inevitable dump. Most of the unbiased pro's are expecting a double bottom, so the more people that can be suckered into this rally, the more shares the MM's can unload on them while they short the top. That's the basics of distribution. The MM's know which way this is going to go. Don't let them sucker you. _____________________________________________ So now we are hearing that Ah doesnt count what a joke.. For the record CSCO last close...$18.65 over 2.6 million shares traded...QLGC...$45.30 only 48,000 shares traded.. yada yada yada.. Gonna be some pain for the Bears tomorrow morning....maybe into the afternoon if when AG drops a 1/2 point he says he sees a turnaround.. I would not want to be short if he says anything encouraging.. One of the problems with this market the Bulls didnt know when to stop last year and looks like the Bears dont know either...<gg> ________________________________________________ I like 9/11 lows or lower for the Nasdaq. I am not even considering the excessive valuation of the Dow and S & P 500. I will never be forced in by momentum. I will be in cash until my specific buy prices are reached. Those buy prices are at least 35% below current prices.